UFC · resolved market
O/U 4.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x076f7c3f61a2dd6e2d85ce9c3aa106898bfec917e6d8b7af1ecb49859bc9e6d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,821
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Over | 52c | 2,016$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.72 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd660…8df9backed Under | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 50c | 583$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.5 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa87f…68d1backed Under | 48c | 552.42$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5f…1ae6backed Under | 53c | 470$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.1 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 50c | 425.04$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.29 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Over | 47c | 423.74$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.58 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…6dddbacked Under | 48c | 320$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.6 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf37c…3c74backed Under | 48c | 312.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +120.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5df1…2da7backed Under | 48c | 227.38$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee4…80f2backed Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…01cfbacked Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 43cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Over | 47c | 174$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.22 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0e…7288backed Over | 57c | 131.58$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.58 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f3…4064backed Under | 48c | 103.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 49c | 72.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.87 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd019…681fbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1313…866abacked Under | 53c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…b6a4backed Under | 53c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d19…8b58backed Under | 53c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3a…9bdbbacked Under | 53c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 4.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card)Volkanovski won
- Will Alexander Volkanovski win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Diego Lopes win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.