UFC · resolved market
Will Alexander Volkanovski win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd08dcf86af9d8bef42512a41dbcc1970a0b465d9461ca45fb6207dd1910543ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,472
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,472 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd94a…2728backed Yes | 20c | 2,320$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 79c | 1,567$1,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.11 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 79c | 1,138$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.56 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yes | 16c | 520.34$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.25 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13dd…b2b7backed Yes | 19c | 515$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65e3…7361backed Yes | 20c | 513.12$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b4…c103backed Yes | 20c | 509.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…a781backed Yes | 21c | 400$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…14e8backed Yes | 26c | 395.91$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 27cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Yes | 20c | 367.31$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54eb…aafabacked Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ca…f5c9backed Yes | 20c | 305.39$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae2b…90eabacked Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…fe5cbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf779…13d9backed Yes | 21c | 193.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 189.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae62…e229backed Yes | 20c | 183$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Yes | 17c | 170$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes | 23c | 137$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c88…9f1bbacked Yes | 19c | 134.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b9…08b3backed Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x220f…5476backed Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d37…d0b3backed Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Yes | 17c | 117$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf830…c2dbbacked Yes | 20c | 116.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 68c | 103.35$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd660…8df9backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd70c…3da8backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddfe…4c2ebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e94…db47backed No | 77c | 99.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 113 | 64.6%73 W · 40 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8871…a59abacked Yes | 21c | 93.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Yes | 15c | 80.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda7…c9f2backed Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c68…f2a8backed Yes | 20c | 76.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdc…0ddebacked Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 80c | 69$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf71e…4c70backed Yes | 24c | 61.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781b…ae0ebacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb35…2e23backed Yes | 24c | 50.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…f733backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…54bfbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6e…57febacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed No | 74c | 15.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 64 | 75%48 W · 16 L | +8.2wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alexander Volkanovski win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card)Volkanovski won
- Will Diego Lopes win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.