NBA · resolved market
Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ed3210f31a8e887f3c763c7dac19ea7c0dc6b5b71aa8b1423b6befbaee75306
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,898
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,770
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,898 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6405…7709backed Over | 44c | 3,306$1,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,851.36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…a73cbacked Over | 44c | 3,203$1,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,793.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3d…5a3cbacked Over | 44c | 3,131$1,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,753.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4628…3fbfbacked Over | 44c | 3,033$1,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,698.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 2,292$1,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,283.94 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ff…393fbacked Under | 56c | 2,233$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 46c | 2,043$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,095.65 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52bc…c57cbacked Under | 56c | 1,922$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,076.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe477…bee6backed Under | 56c | 1,818$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63d1…7176backed Under | 56c | 1,626$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef1…05afbacked Under | 56c | 1,622$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9aa…67e1backed Under | 67c | 1,562$1,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047.68 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe22…6f58backed Under | 56c | 1,411$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Over | 25c | 1,289$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964.45 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d9…2a4dbacked Under | 56c | 1,212$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba55…bd74backed Under | 56c | 829$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 62c | 805.95$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.72 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 42c | 506.33$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.05 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 40c | 492.27$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.13 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 38c | 463.3$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.11 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Over | 25c | 459.44$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.55 | 146 | 36.3%53 W · 93 L | +16.4wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4137…586cbacked Under | 66c | 403.43$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.8 | 470 | 43.8%206 W · 264 L | -22.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 44c | 335.06$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.3 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 38c | 300.38$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.65 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 30c | 250$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.6 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Under | 63c | 238.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.07 | 285 | 37.9%108 W · 177 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 20c | 213$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.07 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 55c | 211.77$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.96 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 48c | 210$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 53c | 203.54$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.95 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed Over | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Over | 38c | 191.97$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.02 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Over | 34c | 160$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 71c | 156.1$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8e1dbacked Under | 59c | 152.54$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Over | 37c | 147$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.61 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Under | 57c | 140.35$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 31c | 127.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.39 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Over | 35c | 117$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.23 | 172 | 43%74 W · 98 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 63c | 95.23$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 43c | 87.85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.32 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3167…f43cbacked Over | 39c | 86.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.96 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Over | 36c | 80.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.27 | 177 | 50.8%90 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Over | 34c | 78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Over | 45c | 65.46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 489 | 56.4%276 W · 213 L | +31.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Under | 67c | 58.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 47c | 56.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…dcf0backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 46c | 44.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 545 | 49.5%270 W · 275 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 64c | 42.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Over | 36c | 42.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5d…5bc8backed Under | 59c | 42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -9.2wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Under | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56d2…e5f5backed Under | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e29…c992backed Under | 66c | 39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…bb17backed Under | 66c | 36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1466…3bfbbacked Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 196 | 49%96 W · 100 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x870f…08ebbacked Under | 66c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5931…08cbbacked Under | 63c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x663b…e26cbacked Under | 63c | 33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb34…c6a4backed Under | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -7.0wins | -0.44per pick | 56cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…0100backed Under | 64c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a80…cbf7backed Under | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb7…8745backed Under | 66c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Under | 65c | 23.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26fc…2286backed Under | 63c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…8c27backed Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 301 | 32.6%98 W · 203 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…2d71backed Under | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…2f86backed Under | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bda…3543backed Under | 57c | 18.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa46…1559backed Under | 66c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x07a4…be3abacked Under | 63c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7481…279fbacked Under | 73c | 14.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 238.5this page
- Bulls vs. HeatBulls won
- Bulls vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Bulls vs. Heat: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 231.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 232.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 233.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 234.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 236.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 237.5Over won
- Coby White: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Coby White: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Coby White: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Jalen Smith: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Josh Giddey: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Matas Buzelis: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Spread: Heat (-4.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Heat (-5.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.