NBA · resolved market

Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 231.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa55bcd90aee978fa21d5cf14b6a5a0b8cad82c663ec4862a44d8822e71baf25b

Rebuilt 18 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Feb 1, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $53,074
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $53,177

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,074 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Under	50c	34,581$17,433 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17,432.71	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over	50c	27,500$13,725 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13,774.99	2,153	51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L	+76.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over	49c	10,500$5,145 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,355	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb5c…36f0backed Under	49c	7,755$3,800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,800	29	55.2%16 W · 13 L	+1.6wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Over	50c	5,000$2,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,500	773	48.5%375 W · 398 L	+7.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Under	51c	3,420$1,744 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,744.41	579	50.1%290 W · 289 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Over	52c	2,115$1,100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,015.38	478	56.7%271 W · 207 L	+11.6wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Over	50c	1,000$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$500	320	51.9%166 W · 154 L	+10.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+11%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under	48c	887.54$426 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$426.02	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9aa…67e1backed Over	50c	500$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$250	80	41.3%33 W · 47 L	-8.7wins	-0.11per pick	52cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Under	50c	500$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	1,522	49.6%755 W · 767 L	+27.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over	51c	256.09$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$125.78	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over	48c	210.71$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109.57	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	48c	201.17$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.41	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19ed…6dc8backed Over	49c	157.47$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.31	357	47.1%168 W · 189 L	-8.6wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Under	11c	129.93$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.69	1,390	26%361 W · 1,029 L	-5.6wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over	53c	70$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.82	493	51.7%255 W · 238 L	-4.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dc1…e318backed Over	49c	69.86$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.63	530	43.8%232 W · 298 L	-25.4wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-12%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d15…2d65backed Under	79c	63.05$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.81	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-4.4wins	-0.26per pick	73cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	38-0.10 edge/pick
0x6ec5…257ebacked Over	21c	63.05$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.81	28	60.7%17 W · 11 L	+1.8wins	+0.07per pick	54cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x57e5…e51ebacked Under	51c	52$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.52	333	60.4%201 W · 132 L	+17.6wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Under	46c	49.17$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.62	2,657	49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L	+42.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe22f…fe42backed Under	51c	49.02$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-3.1wins	-0.38per pick	51cpaid	-75.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	49c	47.1$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.06	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8a1…2974backed Over	51c	45.1$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.1	173	31.8%55 W · 118 L	-8.0wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd730…1948backed Over	51c	42.25$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.76	171	55.6%95 W · 76 L	+4.9wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ff7…9ab6backed Under	52c	40.62$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.02	454	60.4%274 W · 180 L	+21.6wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb1b5…60d5backed Under	50c	36$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+2.4wins	+0.18per pick	51cpaid	+33.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe178…e480backed Under	49c	20.83$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.21	27	44.4%12 W · 15 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 231.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event