NBA · resolved market
Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7d49b6a7145e91ccac97c53c9a4915519fb080829372b318bfeb9f3f92793d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $138,425
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $143,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $138,425 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Under | 54c | 81,693$44,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,097.24 | 404 | 46.8%189 W · 215 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 46c | 51,878$23,864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,014.23 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 54c | 27,787$15,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,136.22 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 45c | 20,000$8,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,100 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa177…6e84backed Over | 46c | 10,870$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,869.57 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x498c…42bfbacked Over | 46c | 7,500$3,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,049.97 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed Over | 48c | 5,117$2,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,660.67 | 248 | 47.6%118 W · 130 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9f…e125backed Over | 46c | 4,276$1,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,309.11 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 48c | 2,621$1,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,364.3 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 46c | 2,509$1,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,343.65 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf20f…3b33backed Over | 46c | 2,174$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,173.91 | 183 | 43.7%80 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…71eebacked Over | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 53c | 1,894$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.39 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Over | 47c | 1,277$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.6 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Under | 50c | 1,214$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.76 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 906.03$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.98 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e12…20e9backed Over | 47c | 840.43$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.43 | 293 | 47.4%139 W · 154 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 46c | 807.12$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.11 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Over | 42c | 593.56$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.26 | 285 | 37.9%108 W · 177 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 43c | 581.4$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.4 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 462$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.76 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Over | 47c | 319.14$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.14 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 45c | 236.14$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.88 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 249 | 46.6%116 W · 133 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd94a…2728backed Under | 54c | 198$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.92 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74a6…3cd9backed Under | 54c | 166.67$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Over | 47c | 120$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 451 | 46.1%208 W · 243 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 46c | 119.57$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.57 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Over | 47c | 114$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.42 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e1…4cc7backed Over | 47c | 106.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.36 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f6…66e2backed Over | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 201 | 49.8%100 W · 101 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…fb23backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe56a…9ef1backed Under | 55c | 87.27$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9c…e966backed Over | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 145 | 47.6%69 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 55c | 74.11$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 216 | 42.1%91 W · 125 L | -15.6wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9021…bf4ebacked Under | 55c | 71.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 54c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…5ca7backed Under | 56c | 62.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ce…b027backed Over | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b14…74bcbacked Under | 55c | 58.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Under | 52c | 57.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be3…adcdbacked Under | 55c | 57.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccb7…cdccbacked Under | 55c | 56.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c48…7d6fbacked Under | 55c | 56.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x971c…f72cbacked Over | 48c | 55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 152 | 53.3%81 W · 71 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Over | 46c | 52.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 357 | 47.1%168 W · 189 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 47c | 51.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 927 | 50.6%469 W · 458 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…24d2backed Under | 54c | 47.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Under | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x995e…223dbacked Under | 54c | 44.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e2…0f6bbacked Under | 56c | 43.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…91c0backed Under | 54c | 40.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e7…3234backed Under | 54c | 39.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…afafbacked Under | 54c | 38.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8d…32ddbacked Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff7…9ab6backed Under | 55c | 36.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 454 | 60.4%274 W · 180 L | +21.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x640d…3168backed Under | 54c | 36.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 49c | 36.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a3…8593backed Under | 55c | 34.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc27f…12a9backed Over | 45c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4906…46a1backed Under | 55c | 29.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 47c | 28.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1da6…53edbacked Under | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…0bb5backed Under | 55c | 25.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe4…162bbacked Under | 55c | 23.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…48b7backed Under | 55c | 20.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 233.5this page
- Bulls vs. HeatBulls won
- Bulls vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Bulls vs. Heat: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 231.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 232.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 234.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 236.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 237.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 238.5Over won
- Coby White: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Coby White: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Coby White: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Jalen Smith: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Josh Giddey: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Matas Buzelis: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Spread: Heat (-4.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Heat (-5.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.