NBA · resolved market

Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 237.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc729060c2bf18f0d5af137366ec6fb3da67c51d68b4268b80f41877f86398bf2

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Feb 1, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $26,144
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $29,372

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,144 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x30dd…cbfdbacked Under	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	0%0 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6337…62c5backed Under	52c	2,908$1,512 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,512.16	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-13%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	48c	1,464$699 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$764.46	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Under	60c	1,398$839 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$838.8	404	46.8%189 W · 215 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ca5…73bcbacked Under	55c	1,335$734 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$734	404	51.5%208 W · 196 L	-7.4wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Over	46c	798.15$367 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$431	956	51.5%492 W · 464 L	+23.9wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Over	51c	733.14$374 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$359.24	1,522	49.6%755 W · 767 L	+27.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over	37c	630.55$235 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$395.36	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8e31…9dcabacked Over	40c	500$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$300	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5968…9120backed Under	60c	500$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-3.0wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-30%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	49c	483.46$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.89	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cbf…82abbacked Over	40c	475$190 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$285	169	45.6%77 W · 92 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Over	47c	421$198 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$223.13	401	46.9%188 W · 213 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Under	61c	396.17$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240.32	285	37.9%108 W · 177 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over	39c	300.39$117 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$183.24	1,198	38.8%465 W · 733 L	+11.6wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	63c	257$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.56	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Over	40c	250$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150	1,157	47.9%554 W · 603 L	-19.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0e9…5112backed Under	61c	250$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.5	217	49.3%107 W · 110 L	-4.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over	40c	235.25$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$140.5	5,844	46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L	+32.7wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Over	40c	205$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$123	432	44%190 W · 242 L	-18.3wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7669…f58cbacked Over	25c	200$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150	520	52.3%272 W · 248 L	+31.4wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+19%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Under	49c	200$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	489	56.4%276 W · 213 L	+31.3wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc9aa…67e1backed Under	75c	190$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.5	80	41.3%33 W · 47 L	-8.7wins	-0.11per pick	52cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over	40c	177.61$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106.57	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over	47c	142.9$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.72	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Under	61c	118$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.98	245	49%120 W · 125 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b41…01c7backed Over	44c	90$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.3	538	39.4%212 W · 326 L	-26.8wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb81d…c6c0backed Over	35c	67$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.55	93	60.2%56 W · 37 L	+10.4wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x859d…3cecbacked Over	37c	54.28$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.2	508	41.7%212 W · 296 L	-11.2wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe315…3911backed Under	62c	44.33$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.48	576	57.8%333 W · 243 L	+13.0wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e5d…5bc8backed Under	57c	43$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.51	75	45.3%34 W · 41 L	-9.2wins	-0.12per pick	58cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc3b3…0d89backed Under	65c	29$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.85	29	44.8%13 W · 16 L	-2.2wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0919…fcbcbacked Under	61c	23.61$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	163	43.6%71 W · 92 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xede6…89c4backed Under	65c	23$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.95	50	56%28 W · 22 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8778…73febacked Under	53c	21.26$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.27	46	60.9%28 W · 18 L	+2.7wins	+0.06per pick	55cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 237.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event