TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 234.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,410
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,378

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,410 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Over44c4,161$1,839 inWon+$2,322.219,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Under56c3,897$2,183 inLost-$2,182.5724549%120 W · 125 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under50c2,265$1,141 inLost-$1,141.143,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Over49c2,086$1,022 inWon+$1,06448347.2%228 W · 255 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under56c1,279$716 inLost-$716.246,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over44c607.74$267 inWon+$340.334,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe711…3dd2backed Under58c344.83$200 inLost-$20012855.5%71 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over44c304.43$134 inWon+$170.483,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over44c268.35$118 inWon+$150.683,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Over45c171.28$77 inWon+$94.243244%190 W · 242 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under45c170.69$77 inLost-$76.814,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Over48c134.81$65 inWon+$69.921,02947.7%491 W · 538 L-13.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97f6…66e2backed Under56c100$56 inLost-$5620149.8%100 W · 101 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x448a…3faabacked Under53c75.47$40 inLost-$404245.2%19 W · 23 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-13.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under52c41.46$22 inLost-$21.5680737.7%304 W · 503 L-33.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over44c39.36$17 inWon+$22.045,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1b5…60d5backed Over44c35.99$16 inWon+$20.151369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+33.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x859d…3cecbacked Over44c28.57$13 inWon+$1650841.7%212 W · 296 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7081…2d9cbacked Under56c22.58$13 inLost-$12.5910857.4%62 W · 46 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over49c21.95$11 inWon+$11.192,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba68…39d7backed Under56c20.84$12 inLost-$11.6416354%88 W · 75 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea10…a070backed Over49c20.65$10 inWon+$10.5337652.4%197 W · 179 L+12.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under51c20$10 inLost-$10.28,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.