NBA · resolved market
Spread: Heat (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cb0a48dd32bd9c3a6770d25585aa6aecd96b166aa6b3db2bf4e5a6b77c63023
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bullsof Heat, Bulls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,900
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,299
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,900 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33d0…f7ebbacked Heat | 47c | 33,723$15,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,850 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -10.1wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Bulls | 53c | 20,000$10,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,400 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Bulls | 53c | 15,000$7,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,050 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Heat | 47c | 10,914$5,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,126.84 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b90…2194backed Bulls | 53c | 9,000$4,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,229.99 | 197 | 47.7%94 W · 103 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Bulls | 53c | 7,181$3,806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,374.98 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Heat | 47c | 4,192$1,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,957.44 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…ef8abacked Bulls | 54c | 4,000$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,839.98 | 139 | 54.7%76 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Heat | 47c | 3,941$1,841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,840.64 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Bulls | 52c | 3,762$1,963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,799.12 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Bulls | 55c | 3,655$2,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,638.91 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Heat | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Heat | 48c | 2,939$1,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410.54 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Heat | 46c | 2,769$1,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,277.8 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Heat | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 641 | 39%250 W · 391 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Bulls | 53c | 1,983$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$933.56 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Heat | 49c | 1,837$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 657 | 50.1%329 W · 328 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Bulls | 51c | 1,399$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.17 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…0127backed Heat | 47c | 1,325$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.75 | 221 | 43%95 W · 126 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Bulls | 53c | 1,240$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.62 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bulls | 51c | 628.51$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.14 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf20f…3b33backed Heat | 47c | 449$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.03 | 183 | 43.7%80 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Heat | 46c | 351.94$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.15 | 285 | 37.9%108 W · 177 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3277…be5fbacked Bulls | 54c | 267.06$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.85 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Heat | 47c | 235$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Heat | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Bulls | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f0…299bbacked Bulls | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Bulls | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 364 | 50.8%185 W · 179 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1a…68d8backed Bulls | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 146 | 52.1%76 W · 70 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Bulls | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 619 | 57.5%356 W · 263 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4b…1ff9backed Heat | 48c | 156.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 163 | 47.2%77 W · 86 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Heat | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Heat | 46c | 133.06$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.21 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Heat | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Bulls | 54c | 101.85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f6…66e2backed Bulls | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 201 | 49.8%100 W · 101 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Heat | 51c | 89.02$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 456 | 51.1%233 W · 223 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Bulls | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 503 | 51.5%259 W · 244 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1a…d790backed Bulls | 54c | 74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Heat | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Bulls | 52c | 46.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 357 | 47.1%168 W · 189 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Heat | 49c | 42.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Heat | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Bulls | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Heat | 46c | 39.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1466…3bfbbacked Bulls | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 196 | 49%96 W · 100 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7081…2d9cbacked Bulls | 57c | 36.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Bulls | 63c | 34.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Heat | 47c | 32.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a9…b7b7backed Bulls | 52c | 29.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Heat | 48c | 29.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +12.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa15…95e3backed Heat | 46c | 21.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 212 | 43.4%92 W · 120 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba68…39d7backed Bulls | 55c | 21.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)this page
- Bulls vs. HeatBulls won
- Bulls vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Bulls vs. Heat: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 231.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 232.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 233.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 234.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 236.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 237.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 238.5Over won
- Coby White: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Coby White: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Coby White: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Jalen Smith: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Josh Giddey: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Matas Buzelis: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Spread: Heat (-4.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Heat (-5.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.