Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 1, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf42010db1e3391447c369751506a788a45888b504961bb4075a2fee1e971cd3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $119,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $128,120
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a35…7da5backed No | 0c | 20,811$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5664…f163backed No | 22c | 1,477$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.66 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed No | 15c | 1,400$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.36 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb970…af03backed No | 21c | 1,382$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb678…3913backed Yes | 77c | 1,185$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.63 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…0137backed Yes | 66c | 1,084$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.56 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 12c | 999.67$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.84 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 17c | 998.16$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.28 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 10c | 981.25$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.04 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d2…39f0backed No | 34c | 931$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.54 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…67f5backed No | 16c | 926.26$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.72 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34be…6797backed No | 33c | 896$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.68 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 14c | 825.92$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.91 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 16c | 737.75$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.78 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e1…d9c1backed Yes | 66c | 698$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.32 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7c…a11bbacked No | 34c | 636$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.24 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1424…2c7fbacked No | 28c | 628.7$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…2a4ebacked Yes | 66c | 578$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.52 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…ac4cbacked Yes | 66c | 536$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.24 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 20c | 535.63$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.56 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…e3a2backed No | 11c | 524.1$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 144 | 20.8%30 W · 114 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 12c | 515.05$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed No | 34c | 510$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.4 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 3c | 505$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bc…5d9ebacked Yes | 67c | 496$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…e7f9backed Yes | 65c | 479.66$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.88 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 20cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc49…db74backed No | 17c | 449.76$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.35 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a79…1ccbbacked No | 34c | 445.5$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.47 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 15c | 432.49$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.55 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…f2f3backed No | 12c | 412.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…e065backed Yes | 67c | 388$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.04 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed No | 13c | 387.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3087…f8fbbacked No | 34c | 385$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…f745backed No | 33c | 382$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.06 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x897f…13ffbacked No | 28c | 367.47$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked No | 15c | 361.36$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.86 | 108 | 61.1%66 W · 42 L | +19.1wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +62%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc03e…93edbacked Yes | 75c | 359.32$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.38 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad2…e9babacked Yes | 67c | 354.68$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.36 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x646f…23c3backed Yes | 67c | 341$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.53 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ce…d1babacked No | 15c | 336.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 78c | 333.1$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.56 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6355…8edfbacked No | 31c | 321.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5f…81c0backed No | 34c | 318$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 70c | 312.86$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9a…f183backed No | 34c | 310$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed No | 5c | 308.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 16c | 305.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9244…f154backed Yes | 67c | 299.99$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9f9ebacked Yes | 66c | 283$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.22 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9454…7f72backed Yes | 74c | 269.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.74 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fac…63f8backed No | 28c | 263.47$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe794…321cbacked Yes | 66c | 256$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.04 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1c…aebebacked No | 26c | 249.38$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.94 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc493…eae5backed No | 34c | 237.97$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfb…e887backed No | 14c | 231.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0455…d752backed No | 24c | 229.19$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983c…385dbacked No | 20c | 222.13$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d90…8b87backed No | 23c | 213.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked No | 20c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 5c | 199.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked No | 14c | 199.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed Yes | 66c | 197$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.98 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 13c | 196.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee59backed No | 44c | 193.44$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.9wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8903…0dc2backed No | 33c | 189.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.4 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed Yes | 67c | 181$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.73 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95e8…6f21backed No | 34c | 180$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 19c | 178$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 24c | 175.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 112 | 26.8%30 W · 82 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa5…23d2backed No | 14c | 173.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2434…05eabacked No | 14c | 172.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 63 | 27%17 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 73c | 172.38$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2488…c286backed No | 19c | 168.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe571…710abacked No | 12c | 166.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91c3…0783backed Yes | 75c | 166.52$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.52 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…f8a1backed Yes | 66c | 161$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.74 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee4b…9eecbacked Yes | 63c | 154.43$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.25 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.34per pick | 49cpaid | +130.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed Yes | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x738b…6dc9backed No | 22c | 149.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a92…d2e9backed No | 34c | 149$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.66 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3edf…facdbacked Yes | 69c | 143.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.96 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…d37abacked No | 23c | 138$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb32c…56b9backed Yes | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb135…2d74backed No | 26c | 134.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.41 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 75c | 134.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 19c | 130$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 28c | 129.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaec9…3213backed No | 34c | 128$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3165…6bc4backed No | 12c | 125.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +5.5wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd569…3037backed Yes | 66c | 125$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e24…098abacked Yes | 55c | 118.24$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x099d…3fe2backed No | 44c | 117$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…5692backed No | 31c | 116.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed No | 33c | 113$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +34%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93e2…92b9backed No | 17c | 105.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef67…40debacked No | 21c | 101.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 36cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…3234backed Yes | 79c | 100.75$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7277…ab80backed No | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -37%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc99…23f7backed No | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 1, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 16, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 27, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 8, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.