Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 2, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a88698f32660320ae598e1f3548b1b5fbbdde3f7769f02b96d627ebe6e9dc8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,646
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,368
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,646 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f8e…db93backed No | 0c | 22,078$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd196…2773backed No | 0c | 12,443$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8195…f428backed No | 0c | 5,917$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 5c | 2,722$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.88 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x743d…f77ebacked No | 31c | 1,552$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.22 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae5…910abacked No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbf…7328backed No | 44c | 954$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.76 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e7c…5a5fbacked Yes | 56c | 908$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…7d8abacked Yes | 56c | 802$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.88 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x896e…8902backed Yes | 68c | 800$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc4…c01ebacked Yes | 75c | 800$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…751ebacked No | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be1…3feabacked No | 4c | 799.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.18per pick | 10cpaid | +333.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…20acbacked Yes | 71c | 786.12$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.78 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d90…8b87backed No | 31c | 749.99$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.75 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4d…b46ebacked No | 44c | 685$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.4 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbec…8dccbacked Yes | 56c | 661$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.84 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…2238backed Yes | 56c | 517$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.48 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9244…f154backed Yes | 79c | 473.89$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6988…9f4ebacked Yes | 75c | 471.64$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.64 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 76c | 421.13$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.13 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…4a1cbacked Yes | 74c | 403.25$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.87 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 30c | 399.98$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.99 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked No | 44c | 382$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.08 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 77c | 373.23$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.83 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 72c | 369.86$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e6…2da0backed No | 25c | 364.38$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa22e…109cbacked No | 44c | 350$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 42cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6576…f0abbacked No | 44c | 312$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.28 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c9…586abacked No | 29c | 310.55$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.6 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc03e…93edbacked Yes | 70c | 307.8$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd2…8414backed No | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e50…1efebacked Yes | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7277…ab80backed No | 35c | 299.97$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.99 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -37%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 24c | 269.15$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.04 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f80…7be8backed Yes | 79c | 254.09$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.09 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8445…64dabacked Yes | 76c | 236$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.69 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 23c | 232.88$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 25c | 221.92$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x33e3…00dabacked Yes | 78c | 209.76$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.96 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…8c45backed No | 44c | 205$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.2 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1968…0088backed Yes | 66c | 202.98$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.98 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb678…3913backed Yes | 75c | 201.33$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.33 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3398…e348backed No | 25c | 198.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe435…c444backed No | 22c | 197.87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac8e…64a9backed Yes | 60c | 197.67$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.97 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +6.2wins | +0.26per pick | 37cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2337…8d74backed Yes | 76c | 187.25$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…e7f9backed Yes | 60c | 173.73$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.79 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 20cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9370…9e88backed No | 32c | 173.47$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc14…2e9bbacked No | 29c | 170.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd2…a384backed No | 29c | 169.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00ba…d621backed Yes | 64c | 156.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b0…627abacked Yes | 75c | 138.79$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x064f…aa9cbacked No | 34c | 136.48$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…9ffbbacked No | 29c | 136.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 75c | 134.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad2…e9babacked Yes | 62c | 131.53$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.63 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…9352backed No | 37c | 130$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb09d…16bdbacked Yes | 67c | 128.31$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c7e7backed Yes | 75c | 128$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e7…5989backed No | 9c | 126.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa868…cf1cbacked Yes | 79c | 126.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1e…c5e3backed No | 28c | 125.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 27c | 114.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcb45…b7f6backed Yes | 78c | 107.35$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf9…d6f0backed No | 28c | 105.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb391…0325backed No | 27c | 105.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5326…6dbbbacked No | 31c | 103.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +134.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc493…eae5backed No | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 11c | 101.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2283…35c4backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb7…8bbabacked Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -86.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb970…af03backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…4fa8backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 201 | 31.8%64 W · 137 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…b810backed Yes | 76c | 93.29$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59c9…975cbacked No | 34c | 87.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 27c | 83.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 124 | 33.1%41 W · 83 L | -12.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d4…ebd7backed Yes | 67c | 82.09$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc9…43f3backed No | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 23c | 74.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3edf…facdbacked Yes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…fe66backed No | 33c | 74.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…f2f3backed No | 23c | 72.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec20…c74bbacked No | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…5692backed No | 35c | 70.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…7c05backed Yes | 71c | 70.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6044…8d29backed No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d8…dfebbacked Yes | 70c | 69.32$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed No | 22c | 65.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc77c…4a70backed No | 30c | 65.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 21c | 65.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 112 | 26.8%30 W · 82 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 30c | 64.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 28c | 60.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa325…aac7backed No | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 2, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 16, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 27, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 8, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.