Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 14, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x348f5576ea30a67befcdace29fb93339cbee48ee5ecbbf9cc5e6af0587836ac6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,471
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,471 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 175 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 0c | 15,737$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked Yes | 57c | 3,687$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,587 | 108 | 61.1%66 W · 42 L | +19.1wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +62%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe144…030bbacked Yes | 38c | 1,464$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.88 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8916…db60backed No | 66c | 1,187$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.28 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.33per pick | 60cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa5…2380backed Yes | 44c | 1,141$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.96 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +122.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…9d52backed No | 3c | 1,050$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…b2b5backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$925 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8348…de9fbacked No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…e7f9backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 20cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 31c | 934.89$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.41 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ad…990ebacked Yes | 48c | 883$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.16 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes | 39c | 759.7$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.27 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x612d…3fd1backed No | 61c | 740$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.4 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 45cpaid | +92%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…9151backed Yes | 44c | 717$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.52 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd134…5558backed No | 52c | 717$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.84 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…afb5backed No | 58c | 663$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.54 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8132…a491backed Yes | 42c | 654$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.32 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb86e…e0ecbacked No | 64c | 620$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.8 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff2d…caf4backed No | 64c | 613$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3719…bd84backed Yes | 38c | 597$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.14 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…b750backed No | 56c | 532$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.92 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -4.5wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 23c | 519.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.6 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +15.0wins | +0.20per pick | 19cpaid | +102%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes | 40c | 504.09$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.09 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…09adbacked Yes | 44c | 495$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.2 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b79…360fbacked Yes | 36c | 492$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.88 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a1…15dbbacked No | 67c | 448.85$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a79…1ccbbacked No | 56c | 432$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.92 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb5…6cbdbacked Yes | 31c | 421.95$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.35 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 3c | 415.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 42c | 412.67$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.67 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f5…8e1ebacked Yes | 39c | 412$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed Yes | 36c | 399$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.36 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…e442backed No | 62c | 396$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.52 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 23c | 386.66$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.33 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 13c | 375$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe363…c10abacked No | 74c | 374.95$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 36c | 370.7$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.55 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 5c | 361$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.19 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5661…ef17backed Yes | 36c | 360$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.4 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x738b…6dc9backed Yes | 15c | 351.86$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.03 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd22a…ac22backed Yes | 39c | 328$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.08 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…200fbacked No | 55c | 324$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.2 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b32…c8a9backed Yes | 45c | 324$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be1…cb56backed No | 56c | 315$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…fb20backed No | 58c | 311.94$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7c…a11bbacked No | 56c | 297$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.32 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc04c…44ffbacked No | 56c | 294$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.64 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed No | 73c | 293.66$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.04 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9d31backed No | 63c | 275.03$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.16 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 41c | 272$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.18 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa601…cad0backed Yes | 24c | 269.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.09 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0de…fc0dbacked Yes | 29c | 268.89$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…5280backed No | 64c | 260$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe49…6828backed No | 60c | 252.58$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.75 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked Yes | 14c | 246.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.9 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 10c | 239.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.69 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7775…6cb4backed No | 62c | 238$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.56 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e32…d1c4backed Yes | 17c | 236.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.5 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +6.3wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…b7d4backed No | 65c | 231.11$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9939…d3bebacked Yes | 13c | 203.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.55 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9179…4096backed No | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.65 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 62c | 198.99$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.85 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5214…95c9backed No | 56c | 198$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.88 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…c364backed No | 70c | 193.07$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.95 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35d2…6698backed No | 56c | 190$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -37%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 34c | 188.69$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.46 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x15f9…607ebacked Yes | 18c | 186.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.96 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1997…2e36backed No | 55c | 181.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.41 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -8.1wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbd46…5a54backed No | 78c | 180.45$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2865…2005backed No | 72c | 168.69$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.83 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76ae…2c6bbacked No | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -8.6wins | -0.32per pick | 58cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1bca…53dcbacked Yes | 44c | 157.63$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.64 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f18…2080backed No | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes | 27c | 150$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.5 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…97e9backed Yes | 16c | 149$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.74 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 69c | 140$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.24 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…23bebacked Yes | 11c | 139.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.42 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb132…6943backed No | 64c | 139$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.96 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes | 21c | 134.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.48 | 200 | 35.5%71 W · 129 L | -11.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…66acbacked No | 58c | 125.44$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b8…5127backed No | 64c | 114.14$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d68…1474backed Yes | 10c | 112.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.13 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae1d…e333backed Yes | 32c | 110$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.1 | 188 | 33.5%63 W · 125 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…7c9abacked No | 14c | 102.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd27…2807backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9078…26afbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab90…8432backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd4…0796backed No | 65c | 96.92$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +148.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…7572backed No | 56c | 95$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…2277backed No | 64c | 90.63$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e24…098abacked Yes | 47c | 90.12$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.76 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…6ad4backed No | 55c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 36c | 90$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 43c | 87.96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.14 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f55…76e8backed No | 63c | 87.67$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.23 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 20c | 85.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.91 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb391…0325backed No | 54c | 82.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 14, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 16, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 27, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 8, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.