Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 5, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8020ac56c6a60399b6136dc8c3623366fd39f3e694cf7f8a4e7cd1aa101e3968
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $193,668
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $180,706
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $193,668 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 319 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe2fb…cd0ebacked No | 0c | 61,807$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 3c | 6,200$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xeb65…3115backed Yes | 59c | 3,547$2,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,457.71 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 13c | 3,509$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.44 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…7d54backed Yes | 49c | 3,067$1,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,567.81 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 42c | 2,358$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,356.46 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 54c | 2,149$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160.23 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe144…030bbacked Yes | 42c | 2,000$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,159.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…9e54backed No | 58c | 1,978$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,151.75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac8e…64a9backed Yes | 53c | 1,784$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.86 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +6.2wins | +0.26per pick | 37cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 7c | 1,714$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.98 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +15.0wins | +0.20per pick | 19cpaid | +102%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6f56…2a4cbacked No | 10c | 1,667$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.63 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c9…224cbacked Yes | 37c | 1,381$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.78 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +5.7wins | +0.36per pick | 21cpaid | +555.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1424…2c7fbacked Yes | 30c | 1,204$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.71 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed No | 11c | 1,200$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.49 | 201 | 31.8%64 W · 137 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb5…6cbdbacked Yes | 53c | 1,163$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.75 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6891…1146backed No | 48c | 1,158$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.84 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +56%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23b9…6447backed Yes | 52c | 1,109$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.32 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e24…098abacked Yes | 55c | 1,011$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.19 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae5…910abacked No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd17…f596backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb65…172cbacked Yes | 60c | 1,000$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.54 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6988…9f4ebacked Yes | 64c | 984.42$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.61 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91c3…0783backed No | 69c | 900.8$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…db83backed Yes | 59c | 850$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa73c…4044backed No | 8c | 849.47$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.74 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…cad6backed Yes | 64c | 837$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.32 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1100…815ebacked No | 36c | 819$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.84 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 49c | 785.97$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.71 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 40c | 769.8$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.61 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…986bbacked No | 37c | 713.37$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.87 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed Yes | 48c | 699.98$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.99 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea7…2550backed No | 35c | 691$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.85 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…1e38backed Yes | 52c | 689$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.72 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 42cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcc16…d090backed No | 58c | 688.2$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f46…086fbacked Yes | 60c | 672.24$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.24 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.33per pick | 40cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d3…6781backed No | 48c | 667.86$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc24…5605backed No | 45c | 660.09$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b92…7585backed Yes | 59c | 629$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.89 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe777…9f29backed Yes | 40c | 599.99$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.49 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 30cpaid | +321.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08b6…7db6backed No | 51c | 579.87$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.07 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bc…5d9ebacked No | 35c | 571$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8d…31e4backed Yes | 53c | 569.98$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.49 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed No | 41c | 542$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.22 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed Yes | 45c | 533.17$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.91 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked No | 47c | 525.67$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.59 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…f582backed No | 48c | 521$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…7773backed Yes | 65c | 504$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.4 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 52c | 500$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.18 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79f1…2d21backed Yes | 63c | 477.57$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.84 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aab…3b61backed No | 45c | 477.03$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.53 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…be53backed No | 36c | 468$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.02 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x416c…8dcebacked No | 48c | 461$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.28 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc40a…1f50backed Yes | 59c | 451$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d66…fc54backed No | 41c | 451$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.91 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4013backed No | 44c | 440.94$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.07 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…f8a1backed Yes | 65c | 436$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.6 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4805backed Yes | 52c | 431$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.88 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…a432backed No | 41c | 424$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.84 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 38cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad2…e9babacked Yes | 61c | 417.34$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.42 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 3c | 416$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked No | 54c | 413.17$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.08 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c36…9433backed No | 63c | 410.4$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 40c | 400.22$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.54 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4be1…3feabacked No | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.18per pick | 10cpaid | +333.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c2…fcbebacked Yes | 65c | 382$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.7 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4d…b46ebacked Yes | 65c | 379$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.65 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…20acbacked Yes | 60c | 369.3$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.56 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x246f…0ab2backed No | 35c | 368$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a52…05b4backed No | 40c | 366.44$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.9 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04f6…311abacked No | 56c | 357.97$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.2 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d2…3e62backed No | 41c | 339$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 42c | 334.66$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.81 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…2c93backed Yes | 53c | 334.37$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.8 | 88 | 67%59 W · 29 L | +15.2wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +72%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb720…0574backed Yes | 50c | 333.81$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.58 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -90.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf1…71febacked No | 58c | 329.95$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 325.64$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.83 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6f…deaebacked No | 48c | 322$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.56 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc49…db74backed No | 45c | 319.99$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.29 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 54c | 314.78$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.08 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…52a6backed No | 49c | 313.1$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.57 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed Yes | 65c | 313$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.55 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +5.1wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…b5febacked No | 36c | 300$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd43…a5a3backed No | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…4a1cbacked Yes | 42c | 297.5$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.51 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 61c | 287.57$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.16 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ec…5968backed No | 35c | 283.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb593…28eabacked Yes | 59c | 273$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.93 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed No | 41c | 273$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.93 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 63c | 271.95$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.62 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 51c | 262.98$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.45 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb8…f154backed Yes | 63c | 259.83$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.67 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab77…da8bbacked No | 58c | 257.7$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 48c | 254.58$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.86 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc82…9530backed No | 44c | 251.42$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.79 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 57c | 246.66$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.27 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…b55dbacked No | 62c | 237.85$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33e3…a9debacked No | 48c | 237.26$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f0…5c1cbacked No | 53c | 231.46$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c24…b10ebacked No | 60c | 229.92$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.92 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 5, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 16, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 27, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 8, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.