TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe777…9f29

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
62
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Middle East, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 59 out of 100; worst Premier League at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST2429.2%7 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-39.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$740Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+188.5%+$1,394.57
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+49%+$98.01
Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$687Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+80.5%+$553.42
Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$132
Over $2M committed to the Hurupay public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$332Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$332
Sentient FDV above $800M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+66.8%+$160.2
Fogo FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$100.28
Fogo FDV above $700M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$420Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+66.7%+$280
Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$361Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$361
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$238Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$237.88
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$224Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$224
Over $20M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$200.96
Over $40M committed to the Infinex public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$41
Over $7M committed to the Infinex public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$131Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+244.8%+$319.5
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+56.3%+$52.44
No airdrop in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$340Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$339.85
Lighter Airdrop on December 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$20.32
Lighter Airdrop on December 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$20.15
Lighter Airdrop on December 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$20.26
Lighter Airdrop on December 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$20.08
Lighter Airdrop on December 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$20.14
Lighter Airdrop on December 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Lighter Airdrop on December 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Lighter Airdrop on December 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 24 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 5, 2026, EST1353.8%7 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.23per pick30cpaid+321.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Middle East — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US strikes Iraq by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+3,536.4%+$1,167
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+82.1%+$41.07
Will Trump declare war on Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$94
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+733.3%+$2,200
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$320
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$241Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+148.4%+$358.49
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$680Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$679.99
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$300
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+132.6%+$142.49
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$670Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+49.3%+$329.98
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$119
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+100%+$150
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$470Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$470
All 13 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-59.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick38cpaid+130.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Champions League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+56.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Bucks (-1.5)backed Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+118.4%+$92.63
Mavericks vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$116.65
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 223.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.8
Nuggets vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$771Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+120.6%+$929.33
All 4 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick24cpaid-29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$420Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+36.1%+$151.43
Will Trump's approval rating hit 20% in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+431.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$235Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+431.2%+$1,013.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 8, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+266.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Team Vitality win IEM Krakow 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$378Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+266.5%+$1,005.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Dec 28, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Battle of the Sexes: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nick Kyrgiosbacked Sabalenka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$350
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$114
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 1m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$315Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$315
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-01-31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$132
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.