AI · resolved market
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ebd172721028143f8394737b7f809c023c4bcbe2de7a216e7d13a9045ed1ad8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $135,346
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $135,346 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 1c | 8,926$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.85 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed Yes | 4c | 8,730$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.95 | 88 | 15.9%14 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 7,500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 5,528$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…8f77backed Yes | 5c | 5,405$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.73 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed Yes | 3c | 4,723$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.63 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 0c | 4,721$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe777…9f29backed Yes | 1c | 4,088$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 0c | 3,139$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…350cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,769$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,407$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.97 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,054$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…a85ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,007$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…5243backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 1c | 1,903$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes | 3c | 1,632$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.98 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 1,532$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…e034backed Yes | 10c | 1,448$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 1,435$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2483…6f2fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8242…cb6ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,222$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +198.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,201$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 1c | 1,195$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 87 | 0%0 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a35…fcddbacked Yes | 1c | 1,105$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,015$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 1c | 967.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 85 | 0%0 W · 85 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 758.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad7…e72bbacked Yes | 4c | 711.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 18c | 621.27$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.22 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a3…dc85backed Yes | 3c | 587.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 4c | 537.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…66edbacked Yes | 7c | 525.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76d8…827cbacked Yes | 2c | 514.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd77…0ffebacked Yes | 2c | 490$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a8…9b29backed No | 77c | 427$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.22 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…1700backed Yes | 25c | 413$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.69 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed Yes | 26c | 401$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.98 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe539…5345backed Yes | 8c | 369$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f4…9c77backed Yes | 3c | 362$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 357.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…e492backed Yes | 8c | 320$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b9…de55backed Yes | 6c | 316.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 3cpaid | +235.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0f…af26backed Yes | 7c | 315$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46d6…3e31backed Yes | 8c | 304.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…2a8dbacked Yes | 6c | 299.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d8…4c30backed No | 76c | 293$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.32 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…cad6backed Yes | 8c | 282$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x466e…ed99backed Yes | 6c | 280$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…f8a1backed Yes | 5c | 270$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4346…2241backed Yes | 26c | 268$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.68 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…9c76backed No | 74c | 248$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.48 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x326e…c7b9backed Yes | 6c | 228$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…fa2abacked Yes | 8c | 227$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91a1…c1a2backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada4…48babacked Yes | 20c | 210.73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x151d…ebfcbacked Yes | 8c | 206.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed Yes | 8c | 206$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89e3…8fa1backed Yes | 18c | 204.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5def…1283backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e27…9890backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0605…1634backed Yes | 6c | 199.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d66…fc54backed Yes | 24c | 189$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked No | 64c | 188$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.68 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1832…af9ebacked No | 76c | 187$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -62%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…01b1backed No | 73c | 185$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.95 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe309…44c2backed Yes | 24c | 180$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…1812backed Yes | 24c | 175$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…b5cebacked No | 79c | 164$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1220…741abacked Yes | 21c | 156$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12c2…aa71backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…a1ffbacked Yes | 36c | 148$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x750b…7a65backed No | 75c | 134$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee9e…efb7backed Yes | 25c | 134$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x063a…eb4bbacked No | 61c | 110$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed Yes | 24c | 108$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed No | 76c | 104$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c9…893abacked Yes | 10c | 102.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…3e11backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2793…4e49backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab5…f570backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a21…d26abacked Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 88$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 731 | 35.6%260 W · 471 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d04…b81ebacked Yes | 36c | 85.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf53c…00acbacked No | 74c | 85$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed No | 73c | 81$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fb…3fadbacked Yes | 26c | 79.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…305bbacked Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038f…4535backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 76c | 54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…f404backed No | 74c | 54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe17a…c6fbbacked No | 74c | 46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes | 36c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed Yes | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 323 | 29.1%94 W · 229 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc708…ac93backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cb…6db8backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7d…d6d6backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?this page
- Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes won
- Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Oracle be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.