AI · resolved market
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f3446f85289e3dface174e1978a513d9f1fcf7eda14646a8cc127eba17d6fbc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $217,582
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $235,808
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $217,582 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 1c | 16,749$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.12 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 12,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 11,867$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed Yes | 5c | 7,348$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.56 | 88 | 15.9%14 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 4,230$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce60…6705backed Yes | 6c | 3,810$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.59 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…66edbacked Yes | 1c | 2,678$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 1c | 2,231$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…08e8backed Yes | 1c | 2,041$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 1c | 1,787$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 70 | 0%0 W · 70 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,746$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe44a…c4f8backed Yes | 1c | 1,422$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8242…cb6ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,400$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +198.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,269$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7a…c5efbacked Yes | 1c | 1,197$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f0…583dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,193$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2eb…14eebacked Yes | 1c | 1,179$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd0…b71abacked Yes | 2c | 1,111$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…8f77backed Yes | 2c | 1,066$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes | 2c | 999.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b8…f08dbacked Yes | 1c | 855.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 2c | 766.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e2…6959backed Yes | 2c | 558.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd641…f7debacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -64%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Yes | 3c | 473.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes | 7c | 453.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf72e…5928backed Yes | 8c | 335.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9437…6c5dbacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc801…7b41backed Yes | 21c | 134.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?this page
- Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes won
- Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Oracle be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.