AI · resolved market
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f71d8404fe7ca69c72ead771608cdd31c7b21b45792490f74c1c26ac30a8e0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $261,993
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $304,012
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $261,993 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 222 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 10c | 9,405$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.46 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed No | 4c | 5,865$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.73 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 4c | 5,745$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.79 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 5c | 4,479$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.86 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 3c | 4,326$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.4 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed No | 13c | 4,015$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.79 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 14c | 3,813$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.48 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c8…c658backed No | 5c | 2,495$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.49 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked No | 12c | 1,456$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.05 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 19c | 1,380$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.84 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc70d…a6f9backed Yes | 75c | 1,333$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed No | 4c | 1,312$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.46 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 1,266$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked No | 5c | 1,210$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.18 | 72 | 4.2%3 W · 69 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 13c | 1,200$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.98 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 7c | 1,113$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.81 | 87 | 0%0 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 5c | 1,103$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.05 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed No | 8c | 1,032$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.62 | 85 | 0%0 W · 85 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 1,019$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 18c | 1,002$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.86 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed No | 14c | 904.67$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.81 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba50…9f97backed No | 12c | 901.96$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 19c | 753.71$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.58 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad7…0971backed No | 2c | 726.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 30c | 718.44$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.69 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked No | 10c | 689.66$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.97 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 20c | 669.72$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.45 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 16c | 641$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.13 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 18c | 629.91$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.23 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x126b…a516backed Yes | 80c | 628.16$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 9c | 549.36$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5694…9baebacked No | 16c | 537.29$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 12c | 535.71$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.29 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…1e5ebacked No | 33c | 532$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.37 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d13…66a7backed Yes | 80c | 524.03$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed No | 9c | 513.14$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.61 | 52 | 1.9%1 W · 51 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x274f…fbf4backed Yes | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked No | 4c | 467.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…15dabacked No | 17c | 466.53$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.31 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 5c | 447.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…44adbacked Yes | 52c | 438.54$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9630…b278backed No | 22c | 417.5$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.85 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked No | 19c | 398.71$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.26 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 20c | 374.46$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.55 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked No | 9c | 368.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1f…7b0bbacked Yes | 78c | 367.75$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.77 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +37%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36b0…f5bebacked Yes | 59c | 351$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.91 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…7074backed No | 4c | 347.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 5cpaid | +384.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed Yes | 51c | 333$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.17 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e20…04e2backed Yes | 60c | 331.65$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.65 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d6…bca9backed Yes | 51c | 324$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.76 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4346…2241backed No | 46c | 323$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.76 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 20c | 320$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8959…50f8backed No | 46c | 310$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed No | 22c | 306.17$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.97 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x117f…088ebacked Yes | 78c | 298.01$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.3 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…cad6backed No | 49c | 284$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.16 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c0…c4c9backed No | 49c | 282$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.18 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5372…5f61backed No | 22c | 280$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed Yes | 79c | 274$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.54 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed No | 23c | 273$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.79 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ef…095ebacked Yes | 54c | 271.25$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.77 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffab…0912backed No | 21c | 260.35$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 11cpaid | +118.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 9c | 259.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb96d…defebacked Yes | 77c | 254.91$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.54 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9e…a6b9backed No | 21c | 254.43$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8daf…ef60backed Yes | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed No | 22c | 238$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.3 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1220…741abacked No | 23c | 228$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2015…3ddcbacked No | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61a8…f658backed No | 15c | 221$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…de95backed Yes | 78c | 219.99$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ce…5e1dbacked No | 23c | 218.13$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.72 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x063a…eb4bbacked No | 45c | 215.14$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5885…6562backed No | 18c | 215$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 23c | 214.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2971…b901backed No | 22c | 214$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +39%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 54 | 5.6%3 W · 51 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76d8…827cbacked No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…25c0backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x248a…12abbacked Yes | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed No | 24c | 198$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e36…2479backed Yes | 51c | 189$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.61 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…1700backed Yes | 79c | 185$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…9c76backed No | 18c | 184$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4406…5eafbacked No | 18c | 183$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d26…c9f4backed Yes | 78c | 175$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7170…ed44backed No | 41c | 174$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.34 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34fc…d14dbacked Yes | 77c | 173$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.79 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 59c | 168.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.09 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…41b5backed No | 12c | 166.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31bc…7507backed Yes | 60c | 166.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9efe…d947backed No | 15c | 165$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.9wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7838…75efbacked Yes | 73c | 163.32$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea1…6487backed Yes | 77c | 163$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebad…f22bbacked Yes | 63c | 162.69$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.69 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…2648backed Yes | 79c | 160$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f7…90cdbacked No | 40c | 159.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfa…3888backed No | 22c | 158$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…c913backed Yes | 58c | 154$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.68 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 57cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?this page
- Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Oracle be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.