AI · resolved market
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9ed43a6dda81cedbe3f1c71b2df0ca8a39841c10245e7d61d9b9f91263af7a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $208,006
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $236,191
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $208,006 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x013d…3e88backed Yes | 8c | 22,698$1,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,718.52 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed Yes | 10c | 17,378$1,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,717.2 | 88 | 15.9%14 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…7973backed Yes | 16c | 8,308$1,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,337.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 3,931$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.4 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 3,735$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x986e…88d7backed Yes | 8c | 2,507$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 15c | 2,193$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.92 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…2585backed Yes | 19c | 2,000$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dff…1f35backed Yes | 17c | 1,728$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.42 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes | 18c | 1,632$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb04…3ce1backed Yes | 14c | 1,580$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…e492backed Yes | 11c | 1,541$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 14c | 1,363$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.05 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe777…9f29backed Yes | 20c | 1,358$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…e034backed Yes | 8c | 1,315$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 17c | 1,260$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.4 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee9…f7acbacked Yes | 7c | 1,127$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.93 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 18c | 1,114$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.3 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 2c | 1,023$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 12c | 999.93$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.35 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe26b…bee7backed Yes | 11c | 972.04$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dcd…a631backed Yes | 5c | 948.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba50…9f97backed Yes | 11c | 928.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 17c | 883.94$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.29 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 4c | 753.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 5c | 748.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8242…cb6ebacked Yes | 7c | 722.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +198.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…ded7backed Yes | 11c | 696.85$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.19 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0605…1634backed Yes | 15c | 672.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 563.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 4c | 546.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 87 | 0%0 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 11c | 536.61$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.92 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb3…2682backed Yes | 6c | 520$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed Yes | 10c | 500.3$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 484.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 6c | 460.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 85 | 0%0 W · 85 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed Yes | 10c | 458$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed Yes | 10c | 440$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 4c | 422.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 72 | 4.2%3 W · 69 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 7c | 409.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 52 | 1.9%1 W · 51 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…1700backed Yes | 7c | 409$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 6c | 397.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked Yes | 10c | 395.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…1812backed Yes | 11c | 369$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 11c | 341$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x753f…2a5fbacked Yes | 10c | 326.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaca…460abacked Yes | 14c | 309.24$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x787a…a54dbacked Yes | 6c | 288$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0297…85bbbacked Yes | 5c | 277.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 11c | 276$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e35…384fbacked Yes | 11c | 273$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes | 6c | 259.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…31c9backed Yes | 8c | 246.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78cd…816ebacked Yes | 18c | 243.54$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63da…9146backed Yes | 10c | 239.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadd8…8f4bbacked Yes | 12c | 223.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…bfb9backed No | 73c | 219.18$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.18 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…e29abacked Yes | 12c | 214$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc81f…f627backed Yes | 11c | 205.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…aa3cbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b7…eca8backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 37cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb883…e610backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d04…b81ebacked Yes | 24c | 199.39$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes | 14c | 188.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c9…6bdebacked Yes | 12c | 187$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf8…c7afbacked Yes | 10c | 187$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Yes | 8c | 175.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 16c | 171.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…4442backed Yes | 7c | 170.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed Yes | 11c | 161$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b71…f1d9backed Yes | 12c | 159$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a35…fcddbacked Yes | 7c | 158.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed Yes | 19c | 158.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939b…9cd7backed Yes | 14c | 149.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…5f57backed Yes | 9c | 147$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce2…5f90backed Yes | 17c | 140$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1587…901abacked Yes | 12c | 138$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7a…c5efbacked No | 76c | 132.74$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa033…d4c1backed Yes | 10c | 130.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 122.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7b…a54bbacked Yes | 22c | 115.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c24…ae45backed Yes | 12c | 111.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae9…2923backed Yes | 12c | 111$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1581…953cbacked Yes | 10c | 110.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde2b…73a0backed Yes | 10c | 107.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8092…b8a2backed Yes | 18c | 101.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada4…48babacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3610…ccd5backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fa…2cf4backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 45cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf72e…5928backed Yes | 12c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762f…25c2backed Yes | 10c | 99.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fdc…8221backed Yes | 16c | 97.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef21…0edabacked Yes | 11c | 96.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7d…a315backed Yes | 11c | 95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2eb…14eebacked Yes | 18c | 93.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d13…f05fbacked Yes | 12c | 91.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…350cbacked Yes | 23c | 87.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes | 24c | 80.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9272…a501backed Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?this page
- Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes won
- Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Oracle be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.