AI · resolved market
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8e39f2bf0a2368a6dc208fa452fe6456483855799eaa42e055f2b5ecadd2475
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $288,668
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $245,367
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $288,668 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 191 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked No | 3c | 15,669$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.38 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33c1…46ffbacked No | 24c | 12,716$3,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,051.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 6c | 10,988$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.76 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 10,541$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.44 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked No | 4c | 7,711$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.12 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed Yes | 10c | 6,922$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,237.53 | 88 | 15.9%14 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4146…82fdbacked No | 5c | 3,653$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.19 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe99a…918fbacked Yes | 48c | 3,620$1,726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,894.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…d48cbacked Yes | 76c | 3,556$2,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$853.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…66edbacked No | 6c | 3,380$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.37 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes | 77c | 3,331$2,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.31 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe71c…a272backed Yes | 76c | 3,261$2,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3839…585ebacked Yes | 76c | 2,994$2,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…f4d8backed Yes | 76c | 2,905$2,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 4c | 2,889$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.17 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 6c | 2,879$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.34 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 12c | 2,762$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.44 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 5c | 2,629$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.13 | 71 | 7%5 W · 66 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 13c | 2,556$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.7 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 5c | 2,537$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.21 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 6c | 2,506$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.22 | 86 | 5.8%5 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 5c | 2,376$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.93 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe777…9f29backed Yes | 41c | 2,366$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,395.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 6c | 2,334$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.38 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 5c | 2,166$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.26 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 4c | 1,894$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.74 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 6c | 1,727$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.04 | 55 | 3.6%2 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 5c | 1,678$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.62 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 6c | 1,535$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.12 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde0c…a715backed No | 4c | 1,527$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.06 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6335…ca2bbacked No | 5c | 1,360$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.27 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 70c | 1,295$903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.15 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…1d47backed Yes | 74c | 1,077$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.01 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 4c | 1,000$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 898.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe674…163cbacked No | 29c | 850$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e32…8a33backed Yes | 77c | 800$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c8…c658backed No | 10c | 799.91$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.19 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…63b8backed No | 44c | 768.73$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…f98fbacked Yes | 27c | 766.18$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…95adbacked Yes | 77c | 717.57$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.49 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 5c | 657.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd45d…1fb9backed Yes | 78c | 641.28$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.28 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe80e…9211backed Yes | 73c | 545.11$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd22a…293fbacked No | 29c | 520$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc081…bc8fbacked No | 29c | 450$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12b…b701backed No | 24c | 426$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb37c…5be4backed Yes | 76c | 426$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 50c | 419.92$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.51 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad7…0971backed No | 3c | 401.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4014…2388backed Yes | 71c | 400$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d4…469bbacked No | 29c | 400$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac35…83a0backed Yes | 71c | 400$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9788…47b1backed Yes | 77c | 391.08$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x103f…83f7backed No | 7c | 359.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca9…a291backed Yes | 8c | 358.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +129.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc783…f3ffbacked Yes | 76c | 342.08$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48de…2c40backed Yes | 27c | 324.37$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 31c | 321.25$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.83 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…53cebacked Yes | 71c | 320$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa45…4bffbacked No | 6c | 308.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd74…7a71backed Yes | 72c | 303.19$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb205…dfa8backed Yes | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef67…2a33backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +656.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f15…8755backed Yes | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6e…af75backed Yes | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa95b…6927backed Yes | 69c | 290.13$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ae…2969backed No | 13c | 283.53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0170…a17cbacked Yes | 74c | 270.85$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.85 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40b…8a62backed No | 5c | 264.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 44c | 258.96$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.85 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x740c…30d0backed Yes | 80c | 250.38$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 44c | 250.32$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.23 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7792…ae22backed Yes | 54c | 249.21$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8e…46febacked No | 5c | 248.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 4c | 247.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 13c | 246.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked No | 6c | 244.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x693e…8092backed No | 4c | 238.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b8…6f30backed No | 5c | 230.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a71…d71dbacked Yes | 44c | 225.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.89 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaf…59a7backed Yes | 71c | 220$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e1…9010backed Yes | 28c | 214.06$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb0…3e75backed Yes | 62c | 209.73$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6f…67e9backed Yes | 67c | 200.25$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7c…c08ebacked Yes | 7c | 199.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.99 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72bf…ecc3backed Yes | 75c | 187.31$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4657…a752backed Yes | 77c | 186.18$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 72cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d75…0dc4backed Yes | 54c | 184.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.69 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…ff7fbacked Yes | 55c | 182.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27d3backed Yes | 70c | 175.35$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3205…b4f3backed No | 30c | 174$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 28c | 167$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 46c | 166.08$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.63 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…786ebacked No | 24c | 164$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d96…704dbacked Yes | 76c | 164$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed8f…70e3backed Yes | 57c | 152.63$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 27c | 139.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3b…3531backed Yes | 43c | 139$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78bd…300dbacked Yes | 66c | 137.11$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?this page
- Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?No won
- Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?No won
- Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?No won
- Will Oracle be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?No won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?No won
- Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.