AI · resolved market
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc764249fde0da7a2185768f946bc018d11ae75c78996616e318c5fd36124ea7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $239,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $200,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $239,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0ca…66edbacked No | 28c | 45,471$12,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,914.7 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb4…f4c6backed Yes | 1c | 17,431$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.88 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5c…8edabacked Yes | 0c | 7,491$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 7,475$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8a…630fbacked Yes | 78c | 6,870$5,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,342.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 1c | 6,437$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.08 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b21…7197backed Yes | 75c | 6,100$4,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,575 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe16…13ffbacked Yes | 75c | 5,700$4,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,275 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7b…79ecbacked Yes | 76c | 5,200$3,952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,951.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14fb…1beebacked Yes | 75c | 5,000$3,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,750 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 4,921$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.84 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e9…c153backed Yes | 75c | 4,784$3,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,593.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b27…62d2backed Yes | 75c | 4,700$3,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,525 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf020…3392backed Yes | 75c | 4,500$3,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,375 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed Yes | 2c | 3,873$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.26 | 88 | 15.9%14 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…953dbacked Yes | 75c | 3,600$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 40c | 3,230$1,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,924.01 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6c…212dbacked Yes | 75c | 3,150$2,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,362.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 2,428$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked Yes | 3c | 2,250$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.91 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 1,951$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 2c | 1,884$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 71 | 7%5 W · 66 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,776$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.77 | 55 | 3.6%2 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,728$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 52c | 1,619$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.44 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 1,590$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 86 | 5.8%5 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 1,565$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 2c | 1,548$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…52f9backed Yes | 75c | 1,500$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde0c…a715backed Yes | 3c | 1,368$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.69 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 1,303$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 32c | 1,112$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.21 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 1c | 1,106$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f23…90dbbacked Yes | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b5…f95bbacked Yes | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…72bebacked Yes | 51c | 975.06$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…ca94backed Yes | 1c | 922.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 907.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4657…a752backed Yes | 79c | 796.5$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 72cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6967…84bfbacked Yes | 77c | 775.55$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.7 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 13c | 749.99$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.99 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa28f…d25ebacked Yes | 45c | 686.75$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…63b8backed Yes | 31c | 657.74$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 27c | 574.14$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.31 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33b5…1461backed Yes | 3c | 519.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4146…82fdbacked Yes | 11c | 456.42$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.91 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8d…6f61backed Yes | 5c | 442.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c8…c658backed No | 16c | 437.79$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.91 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 19c | 411.35$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.27 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked No | 25c | 403.36$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.63 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 11cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…92bebacked Yes | 74c | 400$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c0…6dcfbacked Yes | 68c | 400$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked No | 12c | 399.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.99 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 43c | 378.83$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.92 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 350.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9557…6f2bbacked Yes | 46c | 327.18$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9c…d1a6backed Yes | 70c | 325.02$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e43…fdc1backed No | 79c | 322.45$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffab…0912backed No | 15c | 318.06$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.06 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 11cpaid | +118.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78ae…2969backed Yes | 15c | 300$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked No | 17c | 300$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x740c…30d0backed Yes | 70c | 283.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 28c | 282.24$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.9 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1756…c84dbacked Yes | 79c | 266.98$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 13c | 250$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.5 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 66c | 237.18$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.08 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x44b3…de01backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…4f43backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 85 | 0%0 W · 85 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…ac3fbacked No | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 28c | 200$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…5243backed No | 31c | 200$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a60…89b6backed Yes | 70c | 199.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x475a…af91backed Yes | 13c | 194.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160f…6380backed Yes | 10c | 192.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 27c | 174$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…4166backed No | 29c | 172.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.83 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa553…3c98backed No | 70c | 165.68$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.26 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 78c | 164.9$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…37fabacked No | 63c | 159.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1e…42debacked Yes | 13c | 154.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 48c | 148.3$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.9 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…ded7backed Yes | 10c | 145.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x647b…5750backed Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 29c | 144.54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.51 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Yes | 52c | 141.59$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.74 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked No | 80c | 134.38$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3966…be5fbacked Yes | 60c | 120.21$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.48 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +36%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x939b…9cd7backed Yes | 18c | 115$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6d…c733backed Yes | 38c | 110$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 22c | 102.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.75 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3b…3531backed Yes | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f08…293ebacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5480…51f3backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd974…476fbacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14d4…c3f7backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf591…d3d4backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0486…2a2fbacked Yes | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce2…5f90backed No | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.99 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…7e75backed Yes | 68c | 88.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?this page
- Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?No won
- Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?Yes won
- Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?No won
- Will Oracle be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?No won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?No won
- Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.