AI · resolved market
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98c77216f639b89b587c410d1d759eceb684bd7df4a59e00f38bf3cb08335b6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $175,761
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,477
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $175,761 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0ca…66edbacked Yes | 5c | 27,621$1,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,312.48 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed Yes | 4c | 13,897$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.91 | 88 | 15.9%14 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 13,806$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb4…f4c6backed Yes | 3c | 8,302$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.27 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked Yes | 1c | 5,819$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.24 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 2c | 4,907$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.45 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecd7…b803backed Yes | 4c | 3,550$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 3,092$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.24 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 3,055$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.44 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a71…d71dbacked Yes | 4c | 3,001$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.34 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…ded7backed Yes | 3c | 2,820$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.71 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 2,458$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 2,457$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.68 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,190$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.11 | 55 | 3.6%2 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 3c | 2,159$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.74 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.83 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x753f…2a5fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,942$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c8…c658backed Yes | 2c | 1,900$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 1,752$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.82 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 3c | 1,732$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 86 | 5.8%5 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974e…f523backed Yes | 3c | 1,628$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 1,613$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.17 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…8865backed Yes | 5c | 1,578$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.44 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6db6…5001backed Yes | 3c | 1,524$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 1,470$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…63b8backed Yes | 6c | 1,439$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 3c | 1,425$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 1c | 1,390$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 3c | 1,362$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.17 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 3c | 1,359$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 71 | 7%5 W · 66 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,288$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4146…82fdbacked Yes | 5c | 1,221$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.87 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 1,092$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…4f43backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 951.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…d9cabacked Yes | 3c | 904.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e32…8a33backed Yes | 3c | 800$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb37f…fdcfbacked Yes | 6c | 619.73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed Yes | 12c | 479.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x811e…c27cbacked Yes | 7c | 479.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…ca94backed Yes | 4c | 400$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd02d…108ebacked Yes | 7c | 358.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 8c | 350.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…5797backed Yes | 6c | 319.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x600b…3695backed Yes | 3c | 305$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 5c | 304.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -54%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…5386backed Yes | 7c | 289.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 8c | 180.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4685…fe25backed Yes | 14c | 105.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7c…c08ebacked Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?this page
- Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?No won
- Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?No won
- Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?No won
- Will Oracle be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?No won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?No won
- Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.