AI · resolved market
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x381469a19ffba9131ac955744cc430ba153b63a4f22177774e29410eadfffa78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $727,900
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $521,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $727,900 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 273 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x04d1…51afbacked Yes | 0c | 47,185$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x809c…8cfdbacked Yes | 2c | 34,697$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…66edbacked Yes | 8c | 25,895$2,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,094.1 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 2c | 21,500$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.09 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5c…8edabacked Yes | 1c | 18,868$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76ef…561cbacked Yes | 4c | 16,441$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 15cpaid | +231.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb4…f4c6backed Yes | 2c | 15,633$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.7 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 15,060$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.83 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4d…7001backed No | 12c | 12,600$1,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,108.92 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +148.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 12,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cd…77c1backed Yes | 30c | 12,137$3,586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,586.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f23…90dbbacked Yes | 72c | 12,075$8,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,729.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Yes | 3c | 10,700$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…5ec5backed Yes | 11c | 10,234$1,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,142.37 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77a2…bef8backed Yes | 3c | 8,080$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…f63abacked Yes | 12c | 7,747$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7f…3afbbacked Yes | 0c | 7,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c9…9fcbbacked Yes | 10c | 7,164$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 6,700$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 6,152$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.83 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…ac2bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,937$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 4,943$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.87 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 4,600$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.51 | 86 | 5.8%5 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…47c4backed Yes | 65c | 4,060$2,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,625.21 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 5c | 3,753$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.67 | 55 | 3.6%2 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…fcbebacked Yes | 6c | 3,402$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.63 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 3,267$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.29 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 3,225$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.55 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 3,126$2,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.49 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 10c | 3,124$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.14 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,993$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.88 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0c…a715backed Yes | 5c | 2,847$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.97 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 3c | 2,805$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.4 | 71 | 7%5 W · 66 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…ded7backed Yes | 4c | 2,619$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.58 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 3c | 2,609$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.68 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 20c | 2,500$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…a316backed Yes | 78c | 2,433$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900.42 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a2…5577backed Yes | 4c | 2,280$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed Yes | 10c | 2,194$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.42 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked No | 13c | 2,116$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,838.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a55…1d25backed Yes | 24c | 2,093$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 5c | 2,026$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.74 | 87 | 0%0 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,799.95 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x939b…9cd7backed Yes | 14c | 1,830$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.63 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed Yes | 5c | 1,829$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 88 | 15.9%14 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee91…093ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,800$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee9…f7acbacked Yes | 1c | 1,774$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 1,759$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…7b80backed No | 11c | 1,752$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,567.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +146.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…0821backed Yes | 2c | 1,724$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 10cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…e361backed Yes | 33c | 1,566$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f35…514fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,521$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 6c | 1,497$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.73 | 85 | 0%0 W · 85 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d98…676bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,458$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe336…44dcbacked No | 17c | 1,412$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,170.79 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +220%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41b9…de55backed Yes | 4c | 1,400$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 3cpaid | +235.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaae6…4053backed Yes | 8c | 1,388$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.92 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3302…79c0backed Yes | 1c | 1,300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4a…1604backed Yes | 56c | 1,266$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c8…c658backed Yes | 6c | 1,200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 23c | 1,198$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.88 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ae…2969backed Yes | 14c | 1,195$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.29 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe99a…918fbacked No | 63c | 1,151$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7cd4backed Yes | 39c | 1,141$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 13c | 1,090$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.6 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcac9…200bbacked Yes | 18c | 999.99$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 13c | 999.98$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.98 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked No | 11c | 999.97$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.97 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6210…9f18backed Yes | 10c | 999.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 13c | 917.08$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.76 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7c…085cbacked Yes | 2c | 892.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 23c | 885.73$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.16 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…1315backed Yes | 3c | 874.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…95adbacked Yes | 13c | 871.98$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.58 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b8…b998backed Yes | 10c | 861.07$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…15a9backed Yes | 24c | 849.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffab…0912backed No | 11c | 817.23$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 11cpaid | +118.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e32…8a33backed Yes | 16c | 800$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.54 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07e1…9010backed Yes | 2c | 799.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…88e1backed No | 13c | 791.74$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +267.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 50c | 782.11$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.67 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 771.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…2408backed Yes | 14c | 735.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked Yes | 3c | 731.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 77c | 723.86$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.42 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b88fbacked Yes | 63c | 719.44$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe777…9f29backed Yes | 74c | 675.94$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 12c | 656$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.1 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 3c | 625$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 73 | 1.4%1 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18c4…e9c5backed Yes | 3c | 610$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 70c | 600$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.8 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 11c | 599.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.99 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 3c | 590$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 70 | 0%0 W · 70 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed No | 15c | 570.91$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.48 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 48c | 518.93$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.55 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked No | 10c | 509.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.98 | 72 | 4.2%3 W · 69 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed Yes | 47c | 505.05$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.63 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5527…4e68backed Yes | 38c | 503.01$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.09 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…6939backed No | 11c | 500$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?this page
- Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?Yes won
- Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?No won
- Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?No won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?No won
- Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.