AI · resolved market
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41b7d0eb6368186ccd57768854c119031e0d966156fdc58455a595530337550d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $512,696
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $309,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $512,696 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4181…de86backed Yes | 3c | 43,187$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,195.64 | 88 | 15.9%14 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 35,091$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 101 | 0%0 W · 101 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a2…5577backed Yes | 0c | 24,903$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 20,731$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4a…bc74backed Yes | 4c | 15,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf914…3b2bbacked Yes | 1c | 13,744$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +269.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4424…4cc6backed Yes | 8c | 10,437$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…f657backed Yes | 1c | 9,358$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f23…90dbbacked Yes | 1c | 8,450$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.3 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 8,438$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb4…f4c6backed Yes | 3c | 7,731$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.25 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42bb…9edabacked Yes | 0c | 7,629$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc32c…4130backed Yes | 1c | 7,549$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b9…de55backed Yes | 2c | 6,612$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.08 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 3cpaid | +235.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 2c | 6,517$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.58 | 55 | 3.6%2 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 6,303$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.38 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 5,590$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 86 | 5.8%5 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 5,255$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 4,769$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.27 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 3c | 4,534$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.92 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 1c | 4,348$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 70 | 0%0 W · 70 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…33f1backed Yes | 6c | 4,262$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 4,015$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.36 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc26…cc42backed Yes | 3c | 4,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…d4d8backed Yes | 1c | 3,907$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ec…143cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,813$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 3,568$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.71 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 3c | 3,396$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.99 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…4f43backed Yes | 2c | 3,273$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.74 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed Yes | 2c | 3,218$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.59 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,202$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…e954backed Yes | 1c | 3,157$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…66edbacked Yes | 3c | 3,103$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.02 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…80bcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,859$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 2,809$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.74 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 2c | 2,760$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.72 | 85 | 0%0 W · 85 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 2c | 2,649$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.57 | 87 | 0%0 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…24ffbacked Yes | 1c | 2,607$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16f8…c1b1backed Yes | 4c | 2,505$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc06…8d45backed Yes | 4c | 2,499$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94e3…f56abacked Yes | 3c | 2,313$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc46…bc0abacked Yes | 4c | 2,278$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c83…0f55backed Yes | 5c | 2,207$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ade…a808backed Yes | 4c | 1,906$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0179…f6c4backed Yes | 4c | 1,875$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x939b…9cd7backed Yes | 3c | 1,830$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.78 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,814$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 1c | 1,759$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 71 | 7%5 W · 66 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef6…ea2bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,743$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa506…d4ddbacked Yes | 1c | 1,672$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b34…66adbacked Yes | 3c | 1,595$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8b…0d7dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,551$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed2a…2606backed Yes | 4c | 1,500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 3c | 1,434$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 1c | 1,427$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd052…5476backed Yes | 7c | 1,390$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b01…8f47backed Yes | 1c | 1,387$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x464a…4aa5backed Yes | 1c | 1,363$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9799…9536backed Yes | 1c | 1,148$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 4c | 1,100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3302…79c0backed Yes | 1c | 1,100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 2c | 1,091$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67b1…9554backed Yes | 6c | 1,080$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ae…2969backed Yes | 4c | 1,070$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.93 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0306…dcf6backed Yes | 4c | 1,064$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb36…c2b6backed Yes | 5c | 1,008$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a6…aee6backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc7…3b4bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b0b…5e43backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 3c | 951.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 72 | 4.2%3 W · 69 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…9b59backed Yes | 1c | 897.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x600b…3695backed Yes | 2c | 754$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 5c | 742.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2677…97b5backed Yes | 7c | 714.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 1c | 700$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf62f…8371backed Yes | 3c | 689.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6181…ad60backed Yes | 4c | 603.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…856bbacked Yes | 4c | 514.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 512.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…caf7backed Yes | 6c | 511.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dff…1f35backed Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3113…dae3backed Yes | 3c | 499.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b2…4486backed Yes | 2c | 499.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 4c | 488.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7168…e422backed Yes | 4c | 487.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 4c | 448.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 8c | 335.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf083…5558backed Yes | 4c | 334.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec9b…15f0backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes | 5c | 328.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd999…25fabacked Yes | 4c | 300.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 292.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 8c | 233.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9a…cc24backed Yes | 11c | 229$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cd…02ffbacked Yes | 6c | 175$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6317…e864backed Yes | 12c | 167$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…b750backed Yes | 12c | 153$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…e68dbacked Yes | 11c | 116$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?this page
- Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?Yes won
- Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?No won
- Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?No won
- Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?No won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?No won
- Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.