AI · resolved market
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x238134529256475c540ad0f1b50f0073910cd5809062ecaedb4619fff89dae97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $954,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $932,324
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $954,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 474 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0ca…66edbacked No | 6c | 31,178$2,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,001.79 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 1c | 30,875$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 5c | 26,866$1,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,217.13 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed Yes | 8c | 16,585$1,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,285.91 | 88 | 15.9%14 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…5ec5backed No | 1c | 14,000$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 4c | 13,611$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed No | 0c | 12,500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 6,606$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.79 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 12c | 6,236$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771.88 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 8c | 6,020$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.83 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 5c | 5,495$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.24 | 86 | 5.8%5 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 5c | 5,104$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.12 | 55 | 3.6%2 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked No | 3c | 4,800$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.22 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…ac2bbacked Yes | 75c | 4,470$3,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,130.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 7c | 4,148$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.97 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 4,117$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.38 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 4c | 4,061$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.49 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 4c | 4,049$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.58 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 4c | 4,049$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.06 | 71 | 7%5 W · 66 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…251cbacked Yes | 11c | 4,000$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,551.94 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +181.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc70d…a6f9backed Yes | 63c | 3,461$2,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,283.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0c…a715backed Yes | 8c | 3,295$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,024.01 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 4c | 3,126$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.65 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab46…4233backed Yes | 68c | 2,866$1,959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 13c | 2,789$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.58 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 8c | 2,461$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.15 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 4c | 2,257$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,161.6 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 3c | 2,190$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.93 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed No | 4c | 2,113$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.09 | 85 | 0%0 W · 85 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6136…5dcdbacked Yes | 76c | 2,000$1,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 69cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 4c | 1,858$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.52 | 87 | 0%0 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked No | 9c | 1,831$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.63 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 15c | 1,753$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.62 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfa…0304backed Yes | 78c | 1,677$1,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes | 49c | 1,651$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.14 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83e4…a034backed Yes | 53c | 1,591$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…ded7backed Yes | 35c | 1,521$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$983.33 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…3d06backed Yes | 9c | 1,507$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,366.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +976.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac8…d352backed No | 3c | 1,464$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc2…c580backed Yes | 10c | 1,450$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,302.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +227.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c8…c658backed No | 8c | 1,440$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.87 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d50…8eebbacked Yes | 65c | 1,434$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x608d…92c8backed Yes | 10c | 1,400$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +389%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe592…0634backed Yes | 10c | 1,400$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +878%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb83d…f11cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,400$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,257 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +879%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d2…71d1backed Yes | 10c | 1,400$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +878.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50ad…c90bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,400$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +878%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc139…aec4backed Yes | 10c | 1,400$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +878.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57cf…397abacked Yes | 10c | 1,400$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +878%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3750…b652backed Yes | 10c | 1,400$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,257 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +879%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4853…fb59backed Yes | 10c | 1,400$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +225.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…d260backed Yes | 10c | 1,400$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +226.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43af…13c7backed Yes | 10c | 1,400$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,257 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +226.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b0…ec40backed Yes | 10c | 1,400$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +225.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd520…5bc3backed Yes | 10c | 1,400$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +389%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6936…3a22backed Yes | 10c | 1,400$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +878.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x412d…1ba0backed Yes | 10c | 1,400$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +389.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…2145backed Yes | 10c | 1,400$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +389.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcac8…0cd9backed Yes | 10c | 1,400$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +226.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81eb…9bc2backed Yes | 10c | 1,400$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +877.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x074a…b74cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,400$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +388.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2f…0577backed Yes | 10c | 1,400$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +878.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42d…0ca3backed Yes | 10c | 1,400$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +389.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee2…436abacked Yes | 10c | 1,400$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +226.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0c…e007backed Yes | 10c | 1,400$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +389.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78f5…58a8backed Yes | 10c | 1,400$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +389%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…63f7backed Yes | 10c | 1,400$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +226.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4d…67cabacked Yes | 10c | 1,400$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +226.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf70a…0e46backed Yes | 10c | 1,400$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +878.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…db91backed Yes | 10c | 1,400$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,257 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +389.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe45c…e48dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,400$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,257 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +389.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca22…8589backed Yes | 10c | 1,391$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,249.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +879%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe57…59e6backed Yes | 54c | 1,382$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8da…11a6backed Yes | 10c | 1,375$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,234.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +226.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84b4…eaa6backed Yes | 10c | 1,370$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,229.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +388.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5746…8e51backed Yes | 10c | 1,368$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,227.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +388.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd89c…3a1abacked Yes | 10c | 1,350$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,212.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +882.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fd…923dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,350$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,211.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +386.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb822…2ca3backed Yes | 10c | 1,350$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,211.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +874%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f4d…9cbdbacked No | 2c | 1,316$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0308…edf7backed Yes | 80c | 1,315$1,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5236…ab18backed Yes | 76c | 1,308$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe80e…9211backed Yes | 77c | 1,301$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…88e1backed Yes | 15c | 1,288$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,095.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +267.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b8…b514backed Yes | 78c | 1,278$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x779d…169fbacked Yes | 30c | 1,227$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.84 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e5…1c91backed Yes | 3c | 1,219$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,186.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.97per pick | 3cpaid | +3,680.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad7…0971backed No | 2c | 1,197$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 9c | 1,131$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.91 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 14c | 1,109$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.44 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7c…908fbacked Yes | 18c | 1,070$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +176.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.28 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…1d45backed Yes | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4422…96f4backed No | 13c | 999.93$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…1d47backed Yes | 79c | 967.4$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ae…2969backed No | 14c | 924.16$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.37 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b9…de55backed Yes | 2c | 898.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.54 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 3cpaid | +235.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3e…6650backed Yes | 77c | 877.6$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de6…fdb3backed No | 7c | 866.46$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb96d…defebacked Yes | 50c | 832.91$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.46 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?this page
- Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?No won
- Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?No won
- Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?No won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?No won
- Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.