NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 223.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfaec71eb7ecab5975f952bc44bd640a7f264962f20f9efe94e37e3b3589b1478
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,737
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,047
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,737 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d18…4972backed Over | 48c | 15,860$7,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,212.6 | 163 | 39.3%64 W · 99 L | -10.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Under | 53c | 10,388$5,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,505.64 | 404 | 46.8%189 W · 215 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Under | 50c | 3,874$1,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,924.74 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 50c | 2,637$1,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,315.38 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…a764backed Under | 11c | 2,577$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.81 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…c5cdbacked Under | 52c | 2,442$1,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,266.59 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 3c | 1,800$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 1,660$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.72 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 47c | 1,072$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.99 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Over | 52c | 1,071$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.89 | 357 | 47.1%168 W · 189 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked Under | 53c | 1,038$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 120 | 51.7%62 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 46c | 936$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.66 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 50c | 772.5$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.44 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Under | 12c | 541$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.53 | 377 | 55.2%208 W · 169 L | +23.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…01babacked Over | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.78 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x426f…e76bbacked Over | 47c | 424$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.72 | 176 | 44.9%79 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Over | 47c | 422$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.66 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 47c | 388$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.64 | 401 | 46.9%188 W · 213 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa849…c825backed Over | 47c | 383.6$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.31 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 54c | 285$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.9 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Under | 28c | 256.09$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.67 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +24.4wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 46c | 250$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec2…3987backed Under | 50c | 237$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5e…b7e4backed Under | 14c | 231.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under | 16c | 227.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed Under | 16c | 165$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 226 | 48.2%109 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe777…9f29backed Under | 46c | 160$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Under | 16c | 141.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4469backed Under | 49c | 120.8$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.44 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Over | 51c | 116.64$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.15 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9aa…67e1backed Over | 48c | 114.66$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.26 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 54c | 112.14$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.56 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3a…020bbacked Over | 48c | 110.68$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.55 | 290 | 55.5%161 W · 129 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Over | 46c | 108$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.32 | 172 | 43%74 W · 98 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf98…0554backed Over | 47c | 102.14$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.16 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2857…6485backed Under | 22c | 100.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa6…4eb6backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2984…57c8backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 44c | 96.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 360 | 45%162 W · 198 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5f…fc90backed Under | 43c | 92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91b5…4a34backed Over | 48c | 89.21$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.57 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…1f24backed Over | 51c | 82.84$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Under | 19c | 73.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 22c | 70.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 410 | 38%156 W · 254 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 59c | 69.65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…4dd7backed Over | 52c | 53.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 53c | 48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Over | 56c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 348 | 49.7%173 W · 175 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…d21fbacked Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed Over | 47c | 40.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 45c | 39.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Over | 35c | 34.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4b…9f51backed Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaa…3ea5backed Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 226 | 55.3%125 W · 101 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Over | 41c | 26.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 50c | 25.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 258 | 40.7%105 W · 153 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0919…fcbcbacked Under | 58c | 24.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 42c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 522 | 40%209 W · 313 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Under | 43c | 23.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 328 | 66.5%218 W · 110 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…b3c2backed Over | 49c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbe…03c5backed Over | 53c | 18.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x728c…1b78backed Under | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 44 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 223.5this page
- Cam Spencer: Points O/U 12.5No won
- GG Jackson II: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 29.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Jaren Jackson Jr.: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Jaren Jackson Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jock Landale: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Jock Landale: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Jonas Valančiūnas: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Jonas Valančiūnas: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Jonas Valančiūnas: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Nuggets vs. GrizzliesGrizzlies won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 217.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 221.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 222.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 224.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 225.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 226.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 227.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 240.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 241.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 242.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 243.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 244.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 245.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 246.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 247.5Under won
- Peyton Watson: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Peyton Watson: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-12.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-5.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Nuggets (-13.5)Grizzlies won
- Vince Williams Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Vince Williams Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Vince Williams Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.