TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 221.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,347

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,347 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc257…358ebacked Under50c7,040$3,520 inLost-$3,52040446.8%189 W · 215 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d18…4972backed Over50c6,000$3,000 inWon+$3,00016339.3%64 W · 99 L-10.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Under52c2,115$1,100 inLost-$1,1001,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over48c1,257$603 inWon+$653.679,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9aa…67e1backed Over50c1,202$602 inWon+$600.68041.3%33 W · 47 L-8.7wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-23.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xaea1…9569backed Over51c588.24$300 inWon+$288.241233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-34.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Over50c569$287 inWon+$282.061,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Under49c372.42$182 inLost-$182.4869149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c25…606ebacked Over22c204.03$45 inWon+$158.58250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+124.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Under50c200$100 inLost-$10024946.6%116 W · 133 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb871…9f15backed Under51c200$102 inLost-$10259144.5%263 W · 328 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4b2…c5cdbacked Over58c166.92$97 inWon+$70.381747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+46.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over50c140.39$70 inWon+$70.22,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19ed…6dc8backed Over51c140$71 inWon+$68.635747.1%168 W · 189 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc649…8bcdbacked Under39c123.56$48 inLost-$48.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under49c122.44$60 inLost-$602,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Under16c107.95$17 inLost-$16.775740.4%23 W · 34 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5337…222bbacked Under12c107$13 inLost-$12.8412331.7%39 W · 84 L-17.0wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-39.5%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Under18c100$18 inLost-$1855316.5%91 W · 462 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98c1…3d1ebacked Over50c100$50 inWon+$502857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb47b…c6b1backed Over51c78.43$40 inWon+$38.438256.1%46 W · 36 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Under23c63.82$15 inLost-$14.6841038%156 W · 254 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-20.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d5e…b7e4backed Over30c55.9$17 inWon+$39.321030%3 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-29.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5140…9951backed Over51c49.02$25 inWon+$24.028263.4%52 W · 30 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b7f…7aecbacked Over50c40$20 inWon+$2043647.9%209 W · 227 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over49c37.62$18 inWon+$19.194,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x392c…0bb4backed Over51c23.53$12 inWon+$11.5311637.9%44 W · 72 L-10.1wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-20.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0684…d593backed Over51c20$10 inWon+$9.887950.6%445 W · 434 L-16.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over78c13.19$10 inWon+$2.884,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb44…3e02backed Over80c12.5$10 inWon+$2.51070%7 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+22.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 44 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.