TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Jonas Valančiūnas: Assists O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$73,299

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,299 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x620f…98bfbacked Yes9c1,308$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1426…8bf9backed Yes8c839$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.95250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fda…f5b5backed Yes6c838$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6f6…b4babacked Yes7c814$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.61520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x402e…ec5abacked Yes10c813$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.8630%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6dd…f407backed Yes10c800$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.39425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-49.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d38…4b77backed Yes6c751$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.81425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-61.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35cd…8309backed Yes16c750$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d0b…175dbacked Yes6c750$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.49250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+220.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ff7…49f4backed Yes7c742$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4127…5850backed Yes9c735$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.67333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-45.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fb3…591ebacked Yes8c712$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.82333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+73.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b5…2f4ebacked Yes10c697$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.79333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-54.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45c2…3c8fbacked Yes8c687$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2899…79d8backed Yes9c659$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.31333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+58.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x702e…c302backed Yes19c595$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfea3…5a9cbacked Yes8c593$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.81450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes8c464.7$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1512227%33 W · 89 L-0.5wins0.00per pick27cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e3c…4427backed Yes7c447$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dcc…abf4backed Yes9c445$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8997…4256backed Yes9c445$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.94333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-36%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40f3…30d7backed Yes51c440$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+240.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f32…655abacked Yes8c422$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20f5…8201backed Yes8c422$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c56…fa49backed Yes10c417$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.87333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+266.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5dff…cd01backed Yes10c417$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04db…3e3cbacked Yes7c411$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x622a…6ef4backed Yes7c411$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc869…046ebacked Yes9c405$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x691c…e746backed Yes10c403$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x402e…f3fcbacked Yes11c400$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5d…4e96backed Yes11c400$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ae…aa47backed Yes5c397$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ee3…5fe8backed Yes7c391.9$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7023…f271backed Yes8c390$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.31333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+18.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x374c…d257backed Yes7c388$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25e4…62d8backed Yes7c388$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9430%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x02d2…7ddfbacked Yes52c376$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb179…93f5backed No48c376$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a73…018fbacked Yes11c375$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.75333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick9cpaid+1,090.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27e3…86f3backed Yes11c375$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x149b…1476backed Yes10c375$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8bf…e710backed Yes10c374$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5260%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b4b…9699backed Yes10c374$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.52250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid0%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x292b…fecebacked Yes8c371$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.83250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x90c4…7558backed Yes8c371$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e9e…6a85backed Yes8c364$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.85425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-50.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0be5…2c71backed Yes8c362$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15f7…ba2bbacked Yes8c356$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa4e…116fbacked Yes8c356$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2fe…d001backed Yes9c339$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.49425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-59.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35ca…c4acbacked Yes9c339$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.49250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcb0…5c1dbacked Yes8c324$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-23.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b79…bf21backed Yes8c324$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f2f…be86backed No49c321.65$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.0413357.9%77 W · 56 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e3e…48ffbacked Yes10c304$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7030…ce2ebacked Yes6c291$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20e7…d660backed Yes9c287$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.54520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid+614.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86f9…744abacked Yes9c287$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.54333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-34.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Yes51c285.59$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.11,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8844…fffbbacked Yes10c279$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd087…2770backed No56c278$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.712100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+89.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x37df…ab25backed Yes10c272$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7334…a9d9backed Yes10c270$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.79250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+176.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b97…2b35backed No64c255$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick64cpaid+57.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb910…284ebacked Yes9c247$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.72757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.30per pick28cpaid+196%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4dcf…d173backed Yes9c247$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.72333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6834…594dbacked Yes10c246$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.09250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+29.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd526…d572backed Yes8c245$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7298…9150backed Yes10c228$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x574d…9aaebacked Yes10c222$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08f0…808abacked Yes6c222$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.32450%2 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+225.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x85c9…2620backed Yes6c222$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f3e…dd0bbacked Yes10c222$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.87250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+395%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xccde…ff56backed Yes37c220$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd54d…6940backed Yes7c220$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.74333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick20cpaid-34.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe514…d627backed Yes10c215$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.72333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+166.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74b4…cceabacked Yes10c208$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.59333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+46.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0cd…df48backed Yes7c206$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17d9…b90cbacked Yes7c205$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.76333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick9cpaid+230%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdebb…19bbbacked Yes10c195$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.53728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-52.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b3b…25c2backed Yes7c191$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e13…0fe8backed Yes45c188$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.66425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-51.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bbe…59f7backed Yes45c188$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5251…44edbacked No64c185$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.52250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8e3…f712backed Yes8c182$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb567…0f95backed Yes8c182$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7430%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe98d…1505backed Yes8c181$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b82…8cc6backed Yes8c181$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.48250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a57…4cacbacked Yes10c166$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6292…d3d3backed Yes10c164$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40c7…cd0fbacked Yes8c164$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c9d…752dbacked Yes10c164$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x339d…49e3backed Yes10c159$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x234b…7fe3backed Yes10c159$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.22333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-55.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66a1…7be4backed Yes9c156$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.35333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick10cpaid+254.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa339…1ac5backed Yes10c154$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefcb…1d9fbacked Yes10c152$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa93e…79b0backed Yes10c152$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71dd…4b63backed Yes7c150$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 44 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.