TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 246.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,951

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,951 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x161a…4103backed Over59c522$306 inLost-$306.382,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf33d…24cabacked Under40c500$200 inWon+$30019432%62 W · 132 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed Over51c369.61$188 inLost-$187.542153%223 W · 198 L+23.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5966…af5dbacked Under49c366.02$179 inWon+$187.1831354.3%170 W · 143 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under51c280.7$142 inWon+$138.543,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Under50c259$129 inWon+$129.591,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x960e…77d6backed Over50c250$125 inLost-$1253953.8%21 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Over58c221.41$128 inLost-$128.51,17050.3%588 W · 582 L+46.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Over49c204.99$100 inLost-$100.4578652.4%412 W · 374 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over50c129.3$64 inLost-$64.452,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Over58c101.13$59 inLost-$58.661,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3590…68f1backed Under34c88.24$30 inWon+$58.2412548%60 W · 65 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed Over61c53.38$33 inLost-$32.5683158.1%483 W · 348 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d87…4e0dbacked Under52c49$25 inWon+$23.5234247.7%163 W · 179 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Under50c45$23 inWon+$22.549247.2%232 W · 260 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under41c38.96$16 inWon+$22.953,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Under51c35.18$18 inWon+$17.2451438.7%199 W · 315 L-29.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over49c33.02$16 inLost-$16.182,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d78…7b8dbacked Under71c30$21 inWon+$8.77754.5%42 W · 35 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabfc…173ebacked Under77c30$23 inWon+$6.952272.7%16 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x19f8…52d4backed Under41c29.54$12 inWon+$17.541163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe5e5…485abacked Over66c18.07$12 inLost-$11.932114.3%3 W · 18 L-5.4wins-0.26per pick40cpaid-72.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 44 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.