TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 244.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,636

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,636 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6d11…c449backed Under45c10,087$4,560 inWon+$5,527.059440.4%38 W · 56 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xacae…6798backed Over55c2,718$1,495 inLost-$1,494.911241.1%46 W · 66 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over55c2,197$1,208 inLost-$1,208.356,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over55c1,959$1,074 inLost-$1,074.162,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Over54c1,740$940 inLost-$939.664651.7%334 W · 312 L-14.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Over55c499.09$274 inLost-$274.587453.3%466 W · 408 L+19.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Over51c495$252 inLost-$251.525840.7%105 W · 153 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Over68c382.6$260 inLost-$260.171,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Over51c231.39$118 inLost-$117.921,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5af…f9e3backed Over53c205.8$109 inLost-$108.7223446.2%108 W · 126 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5966…af5dbacked Under51c200.21$103 inWon+$97.1431354.3%170 W · 143 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7eda…4bb7backed Under50c200$100 inWon+$10038942.9%167 W · 222 L-16.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ca4…aa92backed Over51c200$102 inLost-$10211157.7%64 W · 47 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Over55c153$84 inLost-$84.151,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over52c123.05$64 inLost-$64.043,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over49c104.05$51 inLost-$50.982,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe824…65b4backed Under49c50.1$25 inWon+$25.5552552%273 W · 252 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb7d…7862backed Under46c50$23 inWon+$2721843.6%95 W · 123 L-15.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over47c40.51$19 inLost-$19.233,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca2d…39edbacked Under48c34$16 inWon+$17.6823651.3%121 W · 115 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Over54c22.85$12 inLost-$12.2851438.7%199 W · 315 L-29.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa657…1b1fbacked Under50c22.14$11 inWon+$11.07425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-50%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4694…7527backed Under55c21.05$12 inWon+$9.47475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under50c20.9$10 inWon+$10.432,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed Over59c20$12 inLost-$11.7539055.6%217 W · 173 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 44 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.