TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Grizzlies (-5.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Grizzliesof Grizzlies, Nuggets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,222

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,222 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde04…fa37backed Grizzlies36c7,928$2,880 inWon+$5,047.972,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x022f…ade2backed Nuggets66c5,506$3,632 inLost-$3,631.87560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+46.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06e8…4675backed Nuggets68c1,409$961 inLost-$960.83875%6 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+139.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Grizzlies14c1,183$160 inWon+$1,022.421549.8%107 W · 108 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9aa…67e1backed Nuggets64c787.22$500 inLost-$499.98041.3%33 W · 47 L-8.7wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-23.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2cf1…4c08backed Nuggets51c739.98$378 inLost-$377.99425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Grizzlies67c521.27$348 inWon+$172.951,17050.3%588 W · 582 L+46.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Grizzlies44c521$229 inWon+$292.121,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Nuggets33c513$169 inLost-$169.291,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d18…4972backed Nuggets53c358.5$190 inLost-$190.0116339.3%64 W · 99 L-10.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe648…1ab0backed Nuggets66c325.51$215 inLost-$214.84333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Grizzlies17c306$52 inWon+$254.214,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4b2…c5cdbacked Nuggets66c260$171 inLost-$171.061747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+46.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Grizzlies36c249.77$89 inWon+$160.653,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nuggets52c117.56$61 inLost-$61.131,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Grizzlies48c117.56$56 inWon+$61.132,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9f5…3e7abacked Nuggets78c113.94$88 inLost-$88.437755.2%208 W · 169 L+23.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+60.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xda4f…65babacked Grizzlies49c110.19$54 inWon+$55.831764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+36.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Grizzlies26c108.85$28 inWon+$80.471,13217%192 W · 940 L+2.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Grizzlies22c105$24 inWon+$81.4615010%15 W · 135 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-33.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ad5…37b9backed Grizzlies11c104.85$12 inWon+$93.3214438.9%56 W · 88 L+32.5wins+0.23per pick16cpaid+228.3%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0x83c5…e193backed Nuggets52c79$41 inLost-$41.437935.4%28 W · 51 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Grizzlies37c78.6$29 inWon+$49.261,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Grizzlies18c74.1$13 inWon+$60.7625840.7%105 W · 153 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Grizzlies20c68.47$14 inWon+$54.483,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed Nuggets57c36$21 inLost-$20.521,08563.6%690 W · 395 L+86.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x372d…a119backed Grizzlies32c34.97$11 inWon+$23.783342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Nuggets59c24.75$15 inLost-$14.581,78653.2%950 W · 836 L+52.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc607…bf25backed Nuggets80c23$18 inLost-$18.351442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid+17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf333…038cbacked Nuggets75c17.25$13 inLost-$12.9221259.9%127 W · 85 L-1.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 44 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.