NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 222.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x029a16276d4acece4f81e53fec10e4b00e7c3dbfa476e23074b12b8d3e429205
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,382
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,382 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Under | 52c | 25,000$13,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,000 | 404 | 46.8%189 W · 215 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d18…4972backed Over | 48c | 20,000$9,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,400 | 163 | 39.3%64 W · 99 L | -10.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 8,453$4,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,408.97 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf98…0554backed Over | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…4dd7backed Over | 31c | 3,283$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,267.22 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 47c | 3,123$1,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,654.94 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Over | 49c | 3,102$1,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,592.04 | 357 | 47.1%168 W · 189 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 53c | 2,500$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,325 | 691 | 49.1%339 W · 352 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf20f…3b33backed Over | 48c | 2,467$1,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,282.67 | 183 | 43.7%80 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…a854backed Over | 47c | 2,466$1,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,307.18 | 426 | 48.1%205 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…c5cdbacked Over | 41c | 2,002$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,181.29 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Over | 51c | 1,587$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.35 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 1c | 1,363$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 53c | 1,329$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.74 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x022f…ade2backed Over | 50c | 1,241$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Over | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.83 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Under | 9c | 962.32$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.74 | 258 | 40.7%105 W · 153 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Over | 56c | 861.13$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.59 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.29per pick | 35cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Over | 51c | 775.72$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.49 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Under | 7c | 733.86$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.98 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x413a…0008backed Under | 14c | 612.98$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.82 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +195.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Under | 3c | 333.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 76 | 22.4%17 W · 59 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +132.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f02…e0bbbacked Under | 6c | 307$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a1…a7e6backed Under | 15c | 306$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…eeb8backed Under | 6c | 296$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebc7…3d8cbacked Under | 5c | 279$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f44…78d4backed Under | 15c | 259$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b98…e5d1backed Under | 54c | 232.71$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.79 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x419a…bba7backed Under | 15c | 229$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb9…b72abacked Under | 11c | 194$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…234bbacked Under | 11c | 194$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb69e…8cf1backed Under | 6c | 185$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45cd…5c75backed Under | 6c | 185$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…5e13backed Over | 66c | 181.82$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.82 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x040f…090fbacked Under | 11c | 177$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 9cpaid | +220.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed Over | 78c | 165$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 226 | 48.2%109 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…3264backed Under | 13c | 136$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under | 17c | 134.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 52c | 116.5$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.58 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed Over | 48c | 96.59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.9 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…a65bbacked Under | 13c | 93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873e…0081backed Under | 40c | 87.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2b…1477backed Under | 37c | 79.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 127 | 49.6%63 W · 64 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 22c | 73.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 410 | 38%156 W · 254 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e49…fb01backed Over | 74c | 69.12$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb165…daf7backed Over | 66c | 61.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 40c | 57.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x823e…a4ecbacked Over | 61c | 46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 46c | 43.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5e…b7e4backed Over | 57c | 39.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Under | 26c | 39.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed Over | 69c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +139.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc321…a50ebacked Over | 59c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24dd…12afbacked Over | 60c | 30.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.26per pick | 63cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0919…fcbcbacked Under | 55c | 27.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3154…67f5backed Over | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x392c…0bb4backed Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbff8…7073backed Over | 48c | 24.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 108 | 42.6%46 W · 62 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…7197backed Over | 79c | 20.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…4132backed Over | 78c | 13.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.96 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 44 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 222.5this page
- Cam Spencer: Points O/U 12.5No won
- GG Jackson II: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 29.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Jaren Jackson Jr.: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Jaren Jackson Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jock Landale: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Jock Landale: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Jonas Valančiūnas: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Jonas Valančiūnas: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Jonas Valančiūnas: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Nuggets vs. GrizzliesGrizzlies won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 217.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 221.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 223.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 224.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 225.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 226.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 227.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 240.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 241.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 242.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 243.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 244.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 245.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 246.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 247.5Under won
- Peyton Watson: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Peyton Watson: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-12.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-5.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Nuggets (-13.5)Grizzlies won
- Vince Williams Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Vince Williams Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Vince Williams Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.