TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Jaren Jackson Jr.: Points O/U 21.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$331,649

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $331,649 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbb85…bf3ebacked Yes4c2,449$99 inLost-$99.27250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03b3…7111backed Yes3c829$22 inLost-$22.38250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b56…0429backed Yes3c792$21 inLost-$21.38425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-56.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36ba…db23backed Yes3c785$20 inLost-$20.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c0…82ccbacked Yes8c781$60 inLost-$60.14333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+73.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82bd…b789backed Yes3c766$21 inLost-$20.68425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-52.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81f4…b3afbacked Yes2c721$12 inLost-$11.54366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick35cpaid+28.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd54d…6940backed Yes2c650$12 inLost-$11.7333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick20cpaid-34.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes2c551.05$11 inLost-$10.8611128.8%32 W · 79 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-19.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc623…7c58backed Yes2c550$11 inLost-$10.97250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick6cpaid+426.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a13…c2c8backed Yes3c476$13 inLost-$12.85333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-51.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x823f…91b8backed Yes3c457$12 inLost-$12.34333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+624.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cca…3e33backed Yes3c434$12 inLost-$11.72540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick27cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c433$18 inLost-$17.971,13217%192 W · 940 L+2.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42ab…98cebacked Yes3c432$11 inLost-$11.23366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.45per pick21cpaid+338%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7bab…083abacked Yes3c432$11 inLost-$11.2330%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5891…da52backed Yes3c390$12 inLost-$11.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf464…69a0backed Yes4c378$15 inLost-$15.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eb2…763ebacked Yes7c356$24 inLost-$24.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3b00…0546backed Yes7c356$24 inLost-$24.21450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes4c290.32$11 inLost-$11.165453.7%29 W · 25 L+5.6wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+40.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x29ae…1b22backed Yes7c199$14 inLost-$13.53450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+67.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7f1…a9a8backed Yes8c130$10 inLost-$10.01333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-31.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 44 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.