NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 224.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x007c62d29368999d4a89de58efa2b259c776e39780ae6aab4ee8976012f61012
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,195 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Under | 54c | 3,515$1,898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,897.7 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 3c | 3,298$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.37 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 1,511$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.94 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 1,475$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.38 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 51c | 1,439$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.82 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40a5…f0a8backed Over | 46c | 1,358$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.35 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…4dd7backed Under | 47c | 1,241$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.57 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x022f…ade2backed Under | 49c | 1,241$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Under | 45c | 500$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.26 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 46c | 390.14$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.87 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 54c | 188$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.52 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under | 35c | 121.12$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Under | 54c | 95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 377 | 55.2%208 W · 169 L | +23.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Under | 59c | 85.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 503 | 51.5%259 W · 244 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x243d…c2ecbacked Over | 68c | 61.86$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 33c | 61.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 410 | 38%156 W · 254 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 18c | 61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e2…cca2backed Over | 67c | 59.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff8…7073backed Over | 51c | 58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 108 | 42.6%46 W · 62 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba3…3d9bbacked Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 50c | 56.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 258 | 40.7%105 W · 153 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…637fbacked Under | 56c | 53.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 531 | 49.3%262 W · 269 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc607…bf25backed Over | 63c | 47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc276…0031backed Over | 44c | 45.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7e…719fbacked Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb224…dfa6backed Under | 49c | 42.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe748…bc49backed Under | 50c | 42.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 234 | 53%124 W · 110 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Over | 54c | 40.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b5…60d5backed Over | 48c | 35.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c33…c2f6backed Over | 45c | 35.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Over | 55c | 34.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 401 | 33.4%134 W · 267 L | +27.0wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…19f3backed Over | 51c | 30.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 46c | 30.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f7…2633backed Under | 51c | 29.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5639…7246backed Under | 46c | 28.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24dd…12afbacked Over | 64c | 28.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.26per pick | 63cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…05d5backed Under | 51c | 25.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 197 | 48.2%95 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6713…5de1backed Under | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf4…d93fbacked Over | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95be…9968backed Under | 51c | 24.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 335 | 52.8%177 W · 158 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e78…70c7backed Under | 51c | 21.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 329 | 52.9%174 W · 155 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Under | 57c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 63c | 20.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 545 | 49.5%270 W · 275 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x557d…4ffebacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2594…cc26backed Over | 65c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 44 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 224.5this page
- Cam Spencer: Points O/U 12.5No won
- GG Jackson II: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 29.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Jaren Jackson Jr.: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Jaren Jackson Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jock Landale: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Jock Landale: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Jonas Valančiūnas: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Jonas Valančiūnas: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Jonas Valančiūnas: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Nuggets vs. GrizzliesGrizzlies won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 217.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 221.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 222.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 223.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 225.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 226.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 227.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 240.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 241.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 242.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 243.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 244.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 245.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 246.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 247.5Under won
- Peyton Watson: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Peyton Watson: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-12.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-5.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Nuggets (-13.5)Grizzlies won
- Vince Williams Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Vince Williams Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Vince Williams Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.