TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 240.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,815

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,815 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x21f3…35e3backed Over54c1,691$915 inWon+$775.922,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x773c…cf18backed Under46c1,522$700 inLost-$70018448.9%90 W · 94 L-13.3wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-14.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Over18c501.49$92 inWon+$409.982060%12 W · 8 L+5.4wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+86.4%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under49c339.25$167 inLost-$167.162,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b5f…7b99backed Over49c299.98$147 inWon+$152.9938242.9%164 W · 218 L-11.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x849b…a5fdbacked Under39c155.77$60 inLost-$60.252740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Over38c106.73$41 inWon+$66.172,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over54c92.59$50 inWon+$42.591,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Over63c80.72$51 inWon+$29.821,17050.3%588 W · 582 L+46.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed Under46c77.59$36 inLost-$35.6942153%223 W · 198 L+23.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x79ee…dae9backed Over64c62.5$40 inWon+$22.54746.8%22 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8344…a543backed Under46c60.93$28 inLost-$28.031729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick37cpaid+2.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over32c60$19 inWon+$41.11,78653.2%950 W · 836 L+52.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a7f…0ad6backed Over68c52.29$36 inWon+$16.73742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ea7…1be7backed Under43c45.41$20 inLost-$19.531258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+25.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77c4…d390backed Over65c44.82$29 inWon+$15.5420762.3%129 W · 78 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3437…1e5ebacked Under47c42.55$20 inLost-$2013447%63 W · 71 L+0.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5a2…0020backed Over28c36.13$10 inWon+$26.136848.5%33 W · 35 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7447…c413backed Over65c30.77$20 inWon+$10.772352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under40c30$12 inLost-$11.853,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b5c…ab22backed Under43c30$13 inLost-$12.96053.3%32 W · 28 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under51c25.2$13 inLost-$12.851,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 44 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.