TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 247.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,166

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,166 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8753…85adbacked Over48c2,143$1,019 inLost-$1,019.4864651.7%334 W · 312 L-14.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57ba…d369backed Under54c1,850$999 inWon+$8515072%36 W · 14 L+8.1wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+30.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1d98…4d2dbacked Over48c956.25$459 inLost-$4595052%26 W · 24 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over64c748.97$479 inLost-$479.443,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Under41c738.03$303 inWon+$434.6525840.7%105 W · 153 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under52c710.99$369 inWon+$341.892,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under52c538.46$280 inWon+$258.4687453.3%466 W · 408 L+19.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce39…04d6backed Over47c409.5$192 inLost-$192.4737842.9%162 W · 216 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Over46c367.18$169 inLost-$168.91,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed Over48c365.08$177 inLost-$176.5842153%223 W · 198 L+23.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5966…af5dbacked Under52c209.23$108 inWon+$101.2631354.3%170 W · 143 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x003d…56b3backed Over50c206$103 inLost-$1031361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked Under52c200$104 inWon+$9624955.8%139 W · 110 L+0.7wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8230…5121backed Over10c193.7$20 inLost-$19.5620837.5%78 W · 130 L+38.2wins+0.18per pick19cpaid+115.2%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under45c165.96$75 inWon+$91.353,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Under23c117$27 inWon+$90.092060%12 W · 8 L+5.4wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+86.4%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xe0a9…f98ebacked Under55c109.09$60 inWon+$49.091471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+18%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x61af…aa01backed Under54c100$54 inWon+$4638464.3%247 W · 137 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over48c97.75$47 inLost-$46.632,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Under51c95.37$49 inWon+$46.731,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd68e…8048backed Under68c83.05$57 inWon+$26.2910764.5%69 W · 38 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-4.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8e24…b31fbacked Under54c74.07$40 inWon+$34.0714357.3%82 W · 61 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d87…4e0dbacked Under52c65$34 inWon+$31.234247.7%163 W · 179 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x06d9…7cfbbacked Under53c65$34 inWon+$30.525966.1%39 W · 20 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+14.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Under54c63.42$34 inWon+$29.1951438.7%199 W · 315 L-29.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ec7…1e38backed Over48c57$27 inLost-$27.364134.1%14 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1621…572cbacked Under53c55.92$30 inWon+$26.2811548.7%56 W · 59 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5af…f9e3backed Under54c50.9$27 inWon+$23.4123446.2%108 W · 126 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Under50c48$24 inWon+$2449247.2%232 W · 260 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbce5…cc57backed Under54c45.83$25 inWon+$21.084763.8%30 W · 17 L+6.3wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+25%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7546…73f0backed Under53c41.94$22 inWon+$19.71425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-52.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbfb…e01fbacked Under53c37.74$20 inWon+$17.741353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed Over67c35.04$23 inLost-$23.4639055.6%217 W · 173 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Under33c34.77$11 inWon+$23.4315663.5%99 W · 57 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+10.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa574…4596backed Under60c31.67$19 inWon+$12.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf17e…c12ebacked Under54c31.28$17 inWon+$14.394860.4%29 W · 19 L+4.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+15.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a24…7186backed Under55c27.27$15 inWon+$12.272272.7%16 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Over48c27$13 inLost-$13.031,63448.1%786 W · 848 L+5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1966…da9ebacked Under52c26.92$14 inWon+$12.9235849.7%178 W · 180 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5e5…485abacked Over52c22.69$12 inLost-$11.82114.3%3 W · 18 L-5.4wins-0.26per pick40cpaid-72.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Under50c21$11 inWon+$10.540750.6%206 W · 201 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 44 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.