TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 243.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,374

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,374 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd48a…6e90backed Over52c6,540$3,401 inLost-$3,400.791,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Under48c6,339$3,043 inWon+$3,296.51,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8738…222bbacked Over58c1,724$1,006 inLost-$1,006.0710045%45 W · 55 L-9.4wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-20%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under41c1,419$589 inWon+$830.742,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x69ca…9ef8backed Over60c500.5$300 inLost-$30028554.7%156 W · 129 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+0.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6d11…c449backed Under44c297.98$131 inWon+$167.179440.4%38 W · 56 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under42c186.9$78 inWon+$108.42,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Over53c149.99$79 inLost-$79.4942853%227 W · 201 L+7.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8393…4f91backed Over17c114.31$19 inLost-$19.021136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick28cpaid-22.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Over64c113.67$73 inLost-$73.121,17050.3%588 W · 582 L+46.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc140…ac80backed Under17c90.07$15 inWon+$75.0714947%70 W · 79 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8230…5121backed Under14c88.16$13 inWon+$75.520837.5%78 W · 130 L+38.2wins+0.18per pick19cpaid+115.2%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xdb7d…7862backed Under45c83.86$38 inWon+$45.8621843.6%95 W · 123 L-15.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc71a…f135backed Under47c82.68$39 inWon+$43.828347%39 W · 44 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0644…05debacked Under44c75.96$34 inWon+$42.4317844.4%79 W · 99 L+0.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Under48c70$34 inWon+$36.41,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca2d…39edbacked Under46c59.2$27 inWon+$32.2623651.3%121 W · 115 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5425…f968backed Under48c58.33$28 inWon+$30.337041.4%29 W · 41 L-7.0wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd68e…8048backed Under70c57.14$40 inWon+$17.0210764.5%69 W · 38 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-4.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8044…358ebacked Under63c51.5$32 inWon+$19.2254951.9%285 W · 264 L-2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under47c48.23$23 inWon+$25.5687453.3%466 W · 408 L+19.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under42c44.2$19 inWon+$25.641,19838.8%465 W · 733 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06d9…7cfbbacked Over74c40$30 inLost-$29.75966.1%39 W · 20 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+14.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x56a7…9f37backed Under48c39.04$19 inWon+$20.320847.1%98 W · 110 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over51c35.06$18 inLost-$17.881,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e6a…5a64backed Under59c33.81$20 inWon+$13.812684.6%22 W · 4 L+4.5wins+0.17per pick67cpaid+28.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2886…9bb2backed Over38c31$12 inLost-$11.7810945%49 W · 60 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under35c30.3$10 inWon+$19.813,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Under39c30.01$12 inWon+$18.488057.5%506 W · 374 L+34.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Under41c28.85$12 inWon+$17.031,26445.8%579 W · 685 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe824…65b4backed Under47c28.1$13 inWon+$14.8952552%273 W · 252 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb495…7c65backed Under44c23.34$10 inWon+$13.071668.8%11 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Under48c21.88$11 inWon+$11.3851438.7%199 W · 315 L-29.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under52c21.48$11 inWon+$10.311,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Over55c20$11 inLost-$1187049.3%429 W · 441 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5e5…485abacked Over75c15.71$12 inLost-$11.782114.3%3 W · 18 L-5.4wins-0.26per pick40cpaid-72.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 44 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.