TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Grizzliesof Grizzlies, Nuggets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$97,721

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,721 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbf51…4a30backed Nuggets45c16,716$7,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,50076746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Grizzlies7c11,890$846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,043.7540133.4%134 W · 267 L+27.0wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5cae…a00abacked Grizzlies53c9,987$5,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,694.84465.9%29 W · 15 L+5.9wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+26.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x75ee…ca3cbacked Grizzlies53c9,461$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,461.492356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Nuggets47c8,392$3,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,935.086,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Grizzlies55c7,481$4,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,366.092,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacae…6798backed Grizzlies8c7,200$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,623.9211241.1%46 W · 66 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x06e8…4675backed Grizzlies28c6,089$1,729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,359.73875%6 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+139.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xad89…f6e1backed Grizzlies11c5,027$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,473.741464.3%9 W · 5 L+4.1wins+0.29per pick35cpaid+103.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x19ed…6dc8backed Grizzlies57c4,919$2,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,127.5635747.1%168 W · 189 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Nuggets47c3,718$1,759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,759.055,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets47c3,396$1,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,586.638,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5227…f9bdbacked Grizzlies54c3,264$1,762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,501.3210252.9%54 W · 48 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed Grizzlies36c2,527$919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,608.3212737%47 W · 80 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Grizzlies12c2,018$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,767.7925840.7%105 W · 153 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x022f…ade2backed Grizzlies32c2,000$643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,357.45560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+46.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Grizzlies55c1,780$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80164651.7%334 W · 312 L-14.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Nuggets43c1,747$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758.791,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2c7…2e93backed Grizzlies54c1,743$941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801.8621152.6%111 W · 100 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Grizzlies50c1,467$731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735.423,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Nuggets47c1,442$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.272,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Grizzlies50c1,301$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.561,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Grizzlies6c1,194$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,120.37622.4%17 W · 59 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick14cpaid+132.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b60…9c7ebacked Nuggets47c1,011$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47522643.8%99 W · 127 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x413a…0008backed Grizzlies11c808.08$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.191442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.20per pick23cpaid+195.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1363…330fbacked Grizzlies11c640$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.622100%2 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+509%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8cfc…4f30backed Grizzlies34c567.51$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.168744.8%39 W · 48 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Nuggets46c535.55$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.69,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Nuggets46c529$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.341,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Nuggets48c524$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.5266646.8%312 W · 354 L-29.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9043…63ebbacked Grizzlies5c503$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.86333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick10cpaid+624.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Grizzlies54c500.7$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.323,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c6d…017bbacked Grizzlies3c497$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.1450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+683.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6fb…097ebacked Grizzlies5c468$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.071100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.95per pick5cpaid+2,033.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x06ca…54b2backed Grizzlies9c458$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.86785.7%6 W · 1 L+3.3wins+0.47per pick39cpaid+340.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x81f0…cbb1backed Nuggets45c453.33$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2048765.5%57 W · 30 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4b2…c5cdbacked Grizzlies19c435.71$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.861747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+46.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x117a…01babacked Nuggets44c428.18$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-44.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Nuggets56c424.22$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.7229055.5%161 W · 129 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x823f…91b8backed Grizzlies5c421$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.63333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+624.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Nuggets46c401.48$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.994,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Grizzlies10c400.6$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.831,19838.8%465 W · 733 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Nuggets48c399.99$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19489050.4%449 W · 441 L+4.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Nuggets44c345.55$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.42060%12 W · 8 L+5.4wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+86.4%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x9945…6f1dbacked Grizzlies10c317$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.35333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid+223.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa37c…cafabacked Grizzlies14c304$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.22333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+131.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x964a…93a1backed Grizzlies10c302$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+870.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Grizzlies54c300$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.63,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71dd…4789backed Grizzlies25c300$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2251100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+300%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked Nuggets45c300$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13518556.8%105 W · 80 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b07…ea56backed Nuggets75c300$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb6e…cda9backed Grizzlies17c291$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+148.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51b0…55c3backed Grizzlies14c284$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.38366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick33cpaid+192.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Grizzlies15c251.48$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.945453.7%29 W · 25 L+5.6wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+40.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Grizzlies19c250.39$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.8815010%15 W · 135 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-33.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Grizzlies13c237.95$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.1818140.3%73 W · 108 L+24.4wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+60.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Grizzlies18c232.26$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.641,13217%192 W · 940 L+2.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b1c…4237backed Grizzlies14c229$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.86per pick14cpaid+624.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c7c…c309backed Grizzlies14c229$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.43100%3 W · 0 L+2.7wins+0.91per pick9cpaid+1,337.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb167…12d2backed Grizzlies14c229$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.86per pick14cpaid+635.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x46f4…5bc0backed Grizzlies53c227.26$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.815658.9%33 W · 23 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6a58…5e2fbacked Grizzlies14c217$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.86per pick14cpaid+594.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Nuggets45c214.34$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.91,26445.8%579 W · 685 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40da…0b85backed Nuggets47c211.7$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.58232.9%27 W · 55 L-15.2wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-39.8%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x5d18…4972backed Nuggets46c209.74$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.4816339.3%64 W · 99 L-10.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f93…02c8backed Grizzlies24c206.81$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.811020%2 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick35cpaid+0.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x902e…5f41backed Grizzlies50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1009853.1%52 W · 46 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Nuggets47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9436649.5%181 W · 185 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Grizzlies25c177.48$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.474,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9f5…3e7abacked Grizzlies11c173.6$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.0937755.2%208 W · 169 L+23.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+60.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e3e…48ffbacked Nuggets79c168$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Nuggets52c154.58$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8081845.7%374 W · 444 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf10b…2041backed Grizzlies55c145.7$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.719548.7%95 W · 100 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2dc…223ebacked Grizzlies7c144.89$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.65839.7%23 W · 35 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Grizzlies48c144.6$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.952,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb85…bf3ebacked Grizzlies20c144.24$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.39250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed Grizzlies16c140.15$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.739627.1%26 W · 70 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Nuggets44c136.36$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f15…0ce5backed Grizzlies14c134.6$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.143345.5%15 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec66…e58fbacked Nuggets48c125$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6024250.8%123 W · 119 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a91…95f3backed Grizzlies31c121.67$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.37540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Nuggets44c107.24$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5639736.3%144 W · 253 L-27.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-23.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc9aa…67e1backed Grizzlies52c105.61$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.698041.3%33 W · 47 L-8.7wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-23.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf685…65eebacked Grizzlies58c103.45$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.45475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+33.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x126d…b425backed Grizzlies14c102$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.86per pick14cpaid+635.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2953…ec9ebacked Grizzlies10c100$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901526.7%4 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick12cpaid+307.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd85…6a32backed Nuggets47c85.52$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2411849.2%58 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb58…4acebacked Grizzlies28c71.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.439451.1%48 W · 46 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c04…2e2dbacked Nuggets48c70.83$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3450648%243 W · 263 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c8f…ed86backed Grizzlies29c68.11$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.11333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83c5…e193backed Grizzlies16c64.71$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.27935.4%28 W · 51 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Nuggets47c60.05$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2239756.7%225 W · 172 L+21.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbec4…637fbacked Nuggets45c55.89$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1553149.3%262 W · 269 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked Nuggets59c54.51$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.932866.5%218 W · 110 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed Nuggets49c53.06$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2645651.1%233 W · 223 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2095…8521backed Nuggets43c52$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.365244.2%23 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed Grizzlies21c51.86$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.975855.2%32 W · 26 L+5.4wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+28%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e88…861cbacked Grizzlies29c51$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88ba…b99abacked Nuggets50c46.45$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4110050%50 W · 50 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a5a…0f0cbacked Grizzlies55c45.24$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.241275%9 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+29.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 44 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.