TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Peyton Watson: Points O/U 20.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$68,717

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,717 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x35f8…f7e3backed No53c4,590$2,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,161.893100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+118.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf3ef…4433backed Yes52c4,590$2,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,363.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa48f…57d1backed Yes51c2,885$1,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,477.12250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1aee…3959backed Yes51c1,705$873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$872.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59bb…e01fbacked No49c1,530$747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783.36250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43b5…3951backed No49c1,530$747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d4d…9749backed No49c1,530$747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783.36250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82bd…b789backed Yes45c1,031$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.36425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-52.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2962…6cf3backed Yes50c967$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.8616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-78.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x78fc…ae33backed No50c584$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.622100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+317.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2de0…7499backed Yes50c583$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc76e…516bbacked No51c567$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81f4…b3afbacked No50c543$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick35cpaid+28.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x131a…3ef5backed Yes49c493$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6df…5779backed Yes50c489$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.03333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+553.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f42…83e3backed Yes51c484$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc30…e145backed Yes51c473$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.8730%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7979…1766backed Yes50c467$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39e5…1e01backed Yes51c466$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.3320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe641…ce6dbacked Yes50c454$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.9130%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x67f1…3543backed No50c450$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.652100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+94.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f6c…97e7backed Yes50c450$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e9…2f24backed No49c447$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.083100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+156.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc07c…a6c8backed No49c446$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.463100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+663.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb23d…8595backed No50c445$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.94450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+559.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4e6…2e12backed No49c443$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.37250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16aa…e073backed Yes50c438$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x08e4…95e1backed Yes51c428$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.4230%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x44c2…038ebacked Yes49c423$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x864d…95babacked No50c411$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+99.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d02…1079backed Yes51c411$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5706…c38abacked Yes50c409$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba33…d3c3backed No48c409$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.272100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+93.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc372…d48cbacked No51c409$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.232100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+87.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3be…36eebacked No50c408$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+98.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffb6…7d70backed Yes50c406$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1232…4930backed No50c404$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7947…50f9backed Yes51c403$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.72520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-62.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff0e…345fbacked Yes52c402$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe85c…3fc2backed No48c402$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.83250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2d8…2bb4backed Yes51c398$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.18250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2f4…01efbacked No49c395$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.66366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+31.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc365…ca56backed Yes50c394$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x614c…140abacked Yes6c391$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.85425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-38.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff80…784fbacked Yes47c387$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.5450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+401.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x23d8…8c4cbacked No59c384$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12f8…a971backed No49c384$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.222100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+97.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b4b…9699backed No50c380$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid0%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x28e5…209fbacked No49c374$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cd6…6255backed Yes49c372$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe940…febabacked No49c367$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.543100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+74.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc4b…d4dbbacked Yes50c365$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e33…f51ebacked Yes51c361$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.3120%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e3b…835bbacked No49c357$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.36366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x365a…88e0backed No49c357$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.43366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+82.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87fd…73d8backed Yes50c356$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8077…8df8backed Yes50c354$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4503…fb89backed Yes51c350$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.8560%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d3f…8280backed Yes5c350$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6661…8c71backed No53c346$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.31475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.39per pick37cpaid+225.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcaee…b74dbacked Yes51c345$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75d4…43c6backed Yes49c342$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.6140%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…3f4fbacked Yes49c341$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2242…0b12backed Yes51c340$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.74333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-56.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdab9…6620backed Yes51c339$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.21250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x729d…5375backed Yes51c333$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.1630%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x95ac…2745backed Yes49c332$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09d0…73cfbacked Yes49c332$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f82…5b1cbacked No49c331$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.14425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-48.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca51…f92bbacked No49c330$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.63250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7745…8411backed No49c327$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.12100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+69%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f17…e8d1backed No49c326$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.59250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x947a…89b0backed No51c326$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31de…978ebacked No49c325$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.08450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9374…a3b0backed No50c324$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.7616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-66.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe44e…75f8backed Yes49c323$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2815…9f2bbacked Yes49c323$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a6…88dfbacked Yes50c317$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7caf…4a92backed No50c317$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe77f…22f9backed No50c317$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.55333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-33.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddf4…2920backed No50c316$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.26475%3 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.49per pick26cpaid+176.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9e9e…6a85backed No50c310$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.07425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-50.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d83…1e8abacked Yes5c309$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.91333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ef…7ab4backed Yes49c305$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.4520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb93b…d11dbacked Yes51c303$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98ce…55f3backed No71c295$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.03450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-26.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae6…0a18backed No50c292$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.17366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick26cpaid+275.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x37e2…d47dbacked No49c288$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+103.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x040f…090fbacked Yes5c287$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.92333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick9cpaid+220.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbaf2…d32dbacked Yes5c287$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.92333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+166.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cee…3e34backed Yes68c286$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.48425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-50.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf37a…6574backed No51c283$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.82520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-61%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8744…ed34backed No51c282$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.18333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-34.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x828a…3304backed Yes51c282$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.8240%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa619…ea2fbacked Yes51c282$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.130%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb327…9492backed Yes51c277$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9e…207ebacked Yes51c276$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6c1…4ce9backed No51c276$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe6d…4b2bbacked No49c272$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+105.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee6c…4a35backed No49c272$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 44 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.