TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Nuggets (-13.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Grizzliesof Nuggets, Grizzlies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$100,804

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,804 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Nuggets48c52,105$25,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,00036549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Grizzlies53c21,361$11,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,101.511,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Grizzlies52c20,000$10,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,6001,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2c1…9fe2backed Nuggets46c11,542$5,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,273.887240.3%29 W · 43 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-19.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Grizzlies53c10,000$5,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,70045850.4%231 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Grizzlies52c10,000$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,8001,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Grizzlies52c10,000$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,799.9877348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Grizzlies53c6,420$3,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,017.481,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Nuggets47c5,267$2,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,475.661,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Nuggets48c5,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4001,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbce5…02f1backed Nuggets42c2,400$1,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.318651.6%96 W · 90 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Grizzlies56c1,626$913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$713.082,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Grizzlies59c1,319$775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.52,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Nuggets47c1,277$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.961,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9b4…75a0backed Nuggets47c1,111$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.368154.3%44 W · 37 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Grizzlies53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47026149.4%129 W · 132 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5623…6930backed Nuggets36c1,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36023938.1%91 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Grizzlies53c899.4$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.7274748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Grizzlies64c867$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.62,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Nuggets47c722$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.341,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Nuggets47c595.74$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28087453.3%466 W · 408 L+19.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4328…11d2backed Nuggets32c531.96$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.1938740.3%156 W · 231 L+0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1966…da9ebacked Nuggets48c521.1$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25035849.7%178 W · 180 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Grizzlies53c510.64$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2401,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf469…dcaabacked Nuggets48c510.48$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.0322154.8%121 W · 100 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Nuggets47c483.4$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.643,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9901…6adbbacked Nuggets33c377.44$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.6213843.5%60 W · 78 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32e0…a295backed Grizzlies62c323.06$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.0611261.6%69 W · 43 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Nuggets47c309.95$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.022,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Nuggets47c297.87$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14052146.6%243 W · 278 L-14.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5af…f9e3backed Nuggets48c270.83$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13023446.2%108 W · 126 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Nuggets47c269$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.526,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Grizzlies79c240.92$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.761,17050.3%588 W · 582 L+46.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x292e…172cbacked Nuggets47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10043447.5%206 W · 228 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1e9…6d8ebacked Grizzlies53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9415446.1%71 W · 83 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…763bbacked Grizzlies52c192.3$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.333748.1%162 W · 175 L-1.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7608…92e2backed Nuggets47c187$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.892755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x432f…0b4cbacked Grizzlies54c187$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.023342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5425…f968backed Nuggets47c180.85$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$857041.4%29 W · 41 L-7.0wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6abc…bd1bbacked Nuggets46c176.7$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.3414549%71 W · 74 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Nuggets47c170.22$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8093145.8%426 W · 505 L-25.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Grizzlies53c160$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.242853%227 W · 201 L+7.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed Grizzlies70c150$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.4861957.5%356 W · 263 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2841…3c5abacked Nuggets43c149.99$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6521349.3%105 W · 108 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Nuggets37c148.2$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.743,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Nuggets47c136.35$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.884,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Grizzlies78c122.34$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.333,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Grizzlies55c110$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.525840.7%105 W · 153 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a8f…5259backed Nuggets47c106.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010943.1%47 W · 62 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x246e…d6efbacked Nuggets13c105$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18c6…a4dbbacked Nuggets47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4710750.5%54 W · 53 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b9b…bc4abacked Nuggets39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8537850.3%190 W · 188 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea74…cf99backed Nuggets46c96$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1653339.6%211 W · 322 L-39.9wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-17.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Nuggets39c94.49$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.852,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x725f…06c2backed Grizzlies54c94.46$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.731,88837.3%704 W · 1,184 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4c5…378abacked Grizzlies54c93.22$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.2215744.6%70 W · 87 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56a7…9f37backed Nuggets48c92.51$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.420847.1%98 W · 110 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed Nuggets39c81.97$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9742153%223 W · 198 L+23.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5558…f9c4backed Grizzlies53c80$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.637549.6%186 W · 189 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dec…60c2backed Grizzlies58c76.55$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.3118052.2%94 W · 86 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Grizzlies50c66$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd51b…90a8backed Nuggets29c64.44$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.696640.9%27 W · 39 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-17.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Nuggets48c56.26$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2751438.7%199 W · 315 L-29.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Nuggets47c56$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.321,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43d6…fbedbacked Grizzlies53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.51764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x99a5…328ebacked Grizzlies53c49.24$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1410844.4%48 W · 60 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a13…271dbacked Nuggets50c46$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234450%22 W · 22 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Nuggets47c43.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.441,32249.9%660 W · 662 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Nuggets47c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.887049.3%429 W · 441 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9fa…b505backed Nuggets39c38.39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1511244.6%50 W · 62 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2077…8161backed Nuggets47c35.79$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8214355.2%79 W · 64 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe051…9ec5backed Nuggets49c34.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.151154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Nuggets37c32.7$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,28323.4%300 W · 983 L-178.2wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-40.2%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x919c…06d8backed Nuggets45c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.519852%103 W · 95 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaec…eaafbacked Nuggets50c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1529348.5%142 W · 151 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Nuggets35c28.91$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1260250.5%304 W · 298 L+14.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nuggets45c27.6$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.421,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Grizzlies69c25.28$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.841,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee60…6902backed Grizzlies52c25.22$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1137665.4%246 W · 130 L+62.0wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+31.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x0ebb…1e6bbacked Nuggets46c24$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0112161.2%74 W · 47 L+7.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ad3…8065backed Grizzlies64c21.69$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.81366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Nuggets47c21.28$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1091746.9%430 W · 487 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4b5…56abbacked Grizzlies58c21.14$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.884353.5%23 W · 20 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x370a…86febacked Nuggets50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d29…6da9backed Grizzlies68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.414255.6%79 W · 63 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f15…0ce5backed Grizzlies68c18.75$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63345.5%15 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 44 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.