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NBA · resolved market

Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 217.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,397

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,397 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xad89…f6e1backed Under15c5,000$750 inLost-$7501464.3%9 W · 5 L+4.1wins+0.29per pick35cpaid+103.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x84cc…3132backed Under11c1,168$126 inLost-$125.8511229.5%33 W · 79 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Under7c499.6$35 inLost-$34.8155316.5%91 W · 462 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c5a…022dbacked Under10c367.82$36 inLost-$36.33520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-31.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3c3…43bdbacked Under8c329$26 inLost-$26.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bbe…03c5backed Under8c201.99$16 inLost-$15.925240.4%21 W · 31 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-25.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8986…b357backed Under15c200$30 inLost-$30742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83c5…e193backed Under12c164.07$20 inLost-$19.697935.4%28 W · 51 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd23…e31fbacked Over79c155$123 inWon+$32.2447354.8%259 W · 214 L+14.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17d3…c7fabacked Under8c153$11 inLost-$11.48333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc41d…e6e4backed Under8c153$11 inLost-$11.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe9f5…3e7abacked Over79c152$120 inWon+$31.6237755.2%208 W · 169 L+23.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+60.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7512…68dfbacked Under15c150$23 inLost-$22.51526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.22per pick48cpaid-49.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Under23c148$35 inLost-$34.52,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf31d…a26dbacked Under15c133.33$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12c3…b054backed Under11c107.51$12 inLost-$127951.9%41 W · 38 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68c…c8b1backed Under14c100$14 inLost-$143228.1%9 W · 23 L-4.9wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-36.6%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x894b…93ccbacked Under15c99.73$15 inLost-$14.961338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa26f…4b98backed Under15c67.6$10 inLost-$10.144252.4%22 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b54…ea13backed Over72c40$29 inWon+$11.237959.4%225 W · 154 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 44 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.