NBA · resolved market
Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x162164c40189ed7c2c7d4c52fad04a03fc285fd6a918d49ecaa3a861fcd034c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grizzliesof Grizzlies, Nuggets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,487 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Nuggets | 41c | 4,570$1,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,865.02 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Grizzlies | 59c | 3,504$2,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,446.41 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Nuggets | 50c | 1,125$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.22 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Grizzlies | 50c | 993.61$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.8 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed Grizzlies | 54c | 842.71$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.84 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Nuggets | 45c | 834.85$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.68 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf98…0554backed Nuggets | 50c | 820$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9aa…67e1backed Grizzlies | 59c | 660$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.6 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets | 42c | 466.33$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.12 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Grizzlies | 58c | 439.65$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.89 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Grizzlies | 4c | 406.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.45 | 76 | 22.4%17 W · 59 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +132.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…c5cdbacked Grizzlies | 22c | 325$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.46 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Grizzlies | 63c | 318.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.87 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Grizzlies | 40c | 296.24$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.74 | 258 | 40.7%105 W · 153 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Nuggets | 75c | 277.82$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.03 | 377 | 55.2%208 W · 169 L | +23.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x413a…0008backed Grizzlies | 25c | 243.82$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.87 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +195.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…a764backed Nuggets | 70c | 214.58$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.1 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Grizzlies | 19c | 213.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.28 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Grizzlies | 54c | 174.7$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.7 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…9ff1backed Grizzlies | 30c | 164$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.35 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Grizzlies | 62c | 155.84$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.22 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Nuggets | 38c | 155.84$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.22 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Grizzlies | 44c | 150$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.35 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed Grizzlies | 26c | 141.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.69 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +139.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Grizzlies | 42c | 141.84$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.84 | 311 | 51.1%159 W · 152 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Grizzlies | 12c | 130.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.8 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41d0…a837backed Grizzlies | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Grizzlies | 59c | 92$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f6…2e01backed Nuggets | 44c | 62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 167 | 49.1%82 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3a…020bbacked Nuggets | 50c | 61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 290 | 55.5%161 W · 129 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Grizzlies | 27c | 53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Grizzlies | 58c | 38.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b5…60d5backed Grizzlies | 49c | 38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bfc…8eb3backed Nuggets | 57c | 35.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 139 | 47.5%66 W · 73 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nuggets | 45c | 35.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…f25bbacked Nuggets | 79c | 34.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…b7b7backed Nuggets | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Grizzlies | 70c | 28.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb231…0363backed Grizzlies | 46c | 27.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24dd…12afbacked Nuggets | 73c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.26per pick | 63cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Grizzlies | 55c | 26.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d18…4972backed Nuggets | 51c | 25.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 163 | 39.3%64 W · 99 L | -10.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Nuggets | 56c | 25.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x862d…2632backed Nuggets | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf9…9e8bbacked Grizzlies | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea72…d821backed Nuggets | 70c | 16.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 72cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 44 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5)this page
- Cam Spencer: Points O/U 12.5No won
- GG Jackson II: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 29.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Jaren Jackson Jr.: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Jaren Jackson Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jock Landale: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Jock Landale: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Jonas Valančiūnas: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Jonas Valančiūnas: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Jonas Valančiūnas: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Nuggets vs. GrizzliesGrizzlies won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 217.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 221.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 222.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 223.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 224.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 225.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 226.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 227.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 240.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 241.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 242.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 243.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 244.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 245.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 246.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 247.5Under won
- Peyton Watson: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Peyton Watson: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-12.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-5.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Nuggets (-13.5)Grizzlies won
- Vince Williams Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Vince Williams Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Vince Williams Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.