TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Peyton Watson: Assists O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$85,225

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,225 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 213 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfba4…7377backed Yes36c3,445$1,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,250.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x78da…1ba8backed No63c3,025$1,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,119.26250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12a4…6210backed Yes34c1,941$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.740%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x02c7…6254backed Yes34c1,504$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0697…dfabbacked No66c1,331$873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e32…949ebacked No66c1,107$726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.81250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-23.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb4c…56f6backed No66c1,007$661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6d5…0010backed Yes17c804$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8e2…4d0cbacked Yes33c774$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc034…e754backed Yes27c754$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.33333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-32.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e6c…fe6fbacked Yes22c740$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9220…6d2ebacked Yes24c704$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5cd…9872backed Yes34c696.03$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe34a…797dbacked Yes18c672$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.97250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+405.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80b5…6010backed Yes19c652$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.53250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91c3…0d88backed Yes34c645$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f7c…0ecabacked Yes5c600$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x56bd…1c0dbacked Yes40c586$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.440%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d03…a375backed Yes36c561$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xecb0…7b11backed Yes19c550$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.62425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecc6…a816backed Yes44c547$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.3240%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2dae…002bbacked Yes19c509$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.17333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+566.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60c3…0169backed Yes38c500$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.550%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09ca…cad3backed Yes44c490$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.0630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1d3…ad97backed Yes33c482$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e00…905dbacked Yes50c477$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffc6…ee9cbacked No61c465$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x63de…2b77backed Yes27c458$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f0…6150backed No36c456$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.93366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick29cpaid+59.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xffce…232abacked Yes29c456$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.730%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7efe…0755backed Yes29c446$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18fd…e42ebacked Yes29c446$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d40…8bdcbacked Yes44c439$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.04250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6afe…4946backed Yes50c436$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.8720%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9f4…f752backed Yes24c420$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.22425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-48.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68e0…cab5backed Yes34c420$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92a7…8612backed No63c420$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x828a…3304backed Yes18c410$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.4440%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x402e…f3fcbacked Yes23c394$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05ee…e42bbacked Yes23c394$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f95…0412backed No56c387$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.05425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-55.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8e3…f712backed Yes34c385$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd70e…6b6ebacked Yes34c385$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.06333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6045…f7e4backed No57c383$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.31366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick23cpaid+543.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x07d1…592dbacked Yes33c381$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9755…92f0backed Yes34c379$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+231.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c83…5f71backed Yes34c379$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82a8…45eabacked Yes21c377$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.1730%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcaa5…d3d8backed Yes21c377$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7908…7687backed No58c375$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xede5…8e2ebacked Yes20c369$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.4330%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12b1…af7dbacked No56c366$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.77425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-55.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd684…dae7backed Yes23c365$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f0a…b5b0backed Yes23c365$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…0961backed Yes19c363$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1459…ec85backed No56c354$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf402…cfa0backed No57c354$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54e2…e3fdbacked Yes18c350$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.0530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e1…18d6backed Yes42c348$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb43…40d6backed Yes42c348$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.86250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4024…bd26backed No63c344$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.594100%4 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+167.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf511…eb68backed Yes42c344$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb03c…89abbacked No62c336$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.34250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd204…3880backed No66c336$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+50.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9e…207ebacked Yes20c333$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a60…5058backed No57c333$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.86333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick21cpaid-41.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb86a…15c8backed Yes20c333$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.27333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ad1…87f4backed Yes13c333$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7255…9a9cbacked No64c331$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.83450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-25.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f9…62a6backed Yes20c331$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb0e…ab0dbacked Yes44c329$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56ca…ce32backed Yes19c328$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.63333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+270.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa626…dfbcbacked No50c328$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6495…2964backed Yes44c327$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2ae…805dbacked Yes18c323$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.130%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc10e…c81ebacked Yes44c316$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.66250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cf3…3e76backed Yes18c314$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x744b…bc2ebacked No62c309$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x35a0…4087backed No75c308$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.62333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-55.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb65…37d2backed No63c306$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick63cpaid+60%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fb8…7602backed Yes40c306$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.430%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeda5…93d6backed No58c304$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3453…a261backed No66c303$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa9c…1d22backed No80c295$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+118.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1df9…5110backed No80c293$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf45…1467backed Yes36c292$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.2930%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x55d4…1ac7backed Yes36c292$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bd9…0b59backed Yes38c286$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3f9…c565backed No66c285$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-23.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccde…acafbacked No56c285$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.55250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ebb…7203backed Yes20c284$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.52250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb45…9e2bbacked No66c282$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaa6…16bbbacked Yes44c280$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bfa…8f83backed Yes33c274$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea9e…8a43backed Yes33c274$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7aa2…8ba6backed No58c271$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.36250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf50…561cbacked No63c268$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.3333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-47.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2707…aed4backed No66c264$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.76250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28ca…68febacked No66c264$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe503…0975backed No77c264$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.93250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-35.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 44 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.