NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78af0222f1f53b74dfae06a2070b00329667f73c346ee4fe373d95d3a0ba6a2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,012
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,012 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 4c | 3,681$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.44 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa921…ee49backed Under | 22c | 514$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf98…0554backed Over | 44c | 447.67$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfa…c05fbacked Under | 22c | 409$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45cd…bfcabacked Under | 22c | 398$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed Under | 4c | 349.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 831 | 58.1%483 W · 348 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa644…2713backed Under | 22c | 339$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3903…2a1dbacked Under | 22c | 337.68$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed49…4619backed Under | 22c | 294$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…f899backed Under | 22c | 257$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x905c…7dd0backed Over | 78c | 255$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…7b53backed Over | 78c | 251$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a21…dc26backed Over | 78c | 247$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3100…2014backed Over | 78c | 230$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe078…7f3cbacked Over | 78c | 229$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a9…1e70backed Under | 22c | 229$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…b50abacked Over | 78c | 221$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…35e5backed Over | 78c | 217$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…aba6backed Over | 78c | 207$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bc…ced4backed Over | 78c | 202$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bac…6a91backed Over | 77c | 202$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73b7…01bdbacked Under | 22c | 186$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…fe9fbacked Over | 78c | 183$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…f75fbacked Over | 78c | 183$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c5…3a78backed Over | 77c | 179$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x163c…e356backed Over | 78c | 164$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7953…1199backed Over | 78c | 162$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1d…30e0backed Over | 78c | 161$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c42…ca50backed Over | 78c | 142$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e89…19e6backed Over | 78c | 142$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 64c | 137.74$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849b…a5fdbacked Under | 28c | 137.45$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaefd…98dcbacked Over | 78c | 137$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Under | 21c | 136.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 258 | 40.7%105 W · 153 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b0…a9e6backed Under | 67c | 130.25$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.74 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c03…cb02backed Under | 22c | 128$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 39c | 117.51$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.63 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x448e…0b6ebacked Under | 42c | 115.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3671…291ebacked Under | 22c | 105$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f6…6a9bbacked Over | 39c | 101.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 60c | 99.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5e…b7e4backed Under | 24c | 98.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…288dbacked Under | 22c | 89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Under | 17c | 78.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under | 26c | 68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdea4…035ebacked Under | 22c | 57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56a8…3639backed Over | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 34c | 37.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe05f…1fe3backed Over | 77c | 37.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 200 | 40%80 W · 120 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 41c | 33.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Under | 34c | 32.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed Over | 61c | 28.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 208 | 37.5%78 W · 130 L | +38.2wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +115.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x24dd…12afbacked Over | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.26per pick | 63cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 61c | 25.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Over | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 455 | 44.8%204 W · 251 L | +21.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 44 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 227.5this page
- Cam Spencer: Points O/U 12.5No won
- GG Jackson II: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 29.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Jaren Jackson Jr.: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Jaren Jackson Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jock Landale: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Jock Landale: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Jonas Valančiūnas: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Jonas Valančiūnas: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Jonas Valančiūnas: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Nuggets vs. GrizzliesGrizzlies won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 217.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 221.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 222.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 223.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 224.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 225.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 226.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 240.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 241.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 242.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 243.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 244.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 245.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 246.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 247.5Under won
- Peyton Watson: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Peyton Watson: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-12.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-5.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Nuggets (-13.5)Grizzlies won
- Vince Williams Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Vince Williams Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Vince Williams Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.