NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa976f0989fd3839e5f07c33c7f10d1f8821b035b7a7164eae45784e84669f443
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,755 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Under | 52c | 5,978$3,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,119.26 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d18…4972backed Under | 57c | 5,270$3,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,011.39 | 163 | 39.3%64 W · 99 L | -10.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 4,533$2,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,370.87 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 4c | 3,953$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.41 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf98…0554backed Over | 48c | 1,488$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.49 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9aa…67e1backed Under | 59c | 1,045$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.51 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 49c | 884.56$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.77 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e5…83d7backed Under | 29c | 579$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c0…3b4ebacked Under | 29c | 511$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Under | 56c | 476$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.8 | 258 | 40.7%105 W · 153 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…7e41backed Over | 41c | 438.02$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.02 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed Under | 4c | 381.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 831 | 58.1%483 W · 348 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40cd…8722backed Under | 29c | 368$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82b2…042cbacked Under | 29c | 310$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 41c | 300$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 46c | 299.99$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.99 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 279$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.83 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 42c | 261.62$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.23 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…aba6backed Over | 71c | 253$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 47c | 252$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.56 | 401 | 46.9%188 W · 213 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d6…b98ebacked Over | 71c | 249$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…6a04backed Under | 29c | 238$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa8…39d7backed Over | 71c | 219$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3567…9d55backed Over | 71c | 211$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7acc…96c5backed Over | 71c | 211$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5e…cbfdbacked Under | 47c | 194.21$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3caf…cfebbacked Over | 71c | 178$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…7b53backed Over | 71c | 162$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…c5cdbacked Under | 57c | 150$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf358…8d88backed Over | 71c | 150$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2427…807dbacked Over | 71c | 147$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ed…ae8cbacked Over | 71c | 143$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d73…bfdabacked Over | 71c | 142$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x448e…0b6ebacked Over | 56c | 116$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…d3e2backed Under | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 106 | 44.3%47 W · 59 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 76c | 83$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 24c | 82.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 410 | 38%156 W · 254 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Under | 24c | 76.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under | 45c | 76.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 62c | 71.21$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Over | 31c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Over | 36c | 60.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5279…5aabbacked Under | 29c | 59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5e…b7e4backed Under | 26c | 53.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 41c | 43.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…9a86backed Over | 48c | 38.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | -15.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24dd…12afbacked Over | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.26per pick | 63cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Under | 64c | 34.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Under | 46c | 34.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 712 | 45.8%326 W · 386 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56a8…3639backed Over | 56c | 32.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 40c | 31.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49f0…df87backed Under | 56c | 30.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 44c | 30.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…39ddbacked Over | 55c | 29.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61af…fd89backed Over | 74c | 28.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +137.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Over | 50c | 22.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 73c | 22.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 927 | 50.6%469 W · 458 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…f23ebacked Over | 74c | 22.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 435 | 44.6%194 W · 241 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf9…9e8bbacked Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 44 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 226.5this page
- Cam Spencer: Points O/U 12.5No won
- GG Jackson II: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 29.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Jaren Jackson Jr.: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Jaren Jackson Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jock Landale: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Jock Landale: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Jonas Valančiūnas: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Jonas Valančiūnas: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Jonas Valančiūnas: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Nuggets vs. GrizzliesGrizzlies won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 217.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 221.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 222.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 223.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 224.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 225.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 227.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 240.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 241.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 242.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 243.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 244.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 245.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 246.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 247.5Under won
- Peyton Watson: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Peyton Watson: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-12.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-5.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Nuggets (-13.5)Grizzlies won
- Vince Williams Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Vince Williams Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Vince Williams Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.