Token Launches · resolved market
Over $40M committed to the Infinex public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f634f78a9008c2d580c41788c48bfb6dfad2f75512d0927097b1890f2f683bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $257,583
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $276,928
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $257,583 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 19,202$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.11 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9411…63c7backed Yes | 1c | 11,220$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.63 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x139b…f8f9backed Yes | 1c | 10,680$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf89…8f83backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39ec…6504backed Yes | 2c | 8,522$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.37 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd588…cec0backed Yes | 3c | 7,785$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.77 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd1…6feebacked Yes | 2c | 5,999$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.18 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a47…846fbacked Yes | 2c | 5,542$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.46 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 5,526$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ff…5e28backed Yes | 1c | 4,778$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.07 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd249…6a1dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,467$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 2,841$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7845…417bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,500$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,420$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 75 | 4%3 W · 72 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed Yes | 1c | 2,406$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…b624backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 1,940$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42a…c680backed Yes | 2c | 1,789$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe777…9f29backed Yes | 2c | 1,706$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4a…7c9fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,648$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -29%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 1c | 1,619$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 1c | 1,535$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,501$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,352$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 42 | 7.1%3 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Yes | 3c | 1,340$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 94 | 22.3%21 W · 73 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedfa…5be2backed Yes | 8c | 1,299$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.23per pick | 29cpaid | -92%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 2c | 1,235$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 119 | 0.8%1 W · 118 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…6939backed Yes | 2c | 1,200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 1c | 1,139$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 112 | 2.7%3 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf6…af1ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,105$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…5499backed Yes | 1c | 1,047$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,020$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…79adbacked Yes | 7c | 1,016$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdac…c1f4backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…62fbbacked Yes | 1c | 980$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81b…5afcbacked Yes | 2c | 962.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ec…6d7abacked Yes | 1c | 950$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked Yes | 1c | 857.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 2c | 849.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 60 | 1.7%1 W · 59 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…ee4bbacked Yes | 2c | 808.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b92…0a99backed Yes | 3c | 685.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +123.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30aa…2bddbacked Yes | 2c | 562.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dea…ee97backed Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1214…ebecbacked Yes | 3c | 499.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +286.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 350$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb1…adc4backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $40M committed to the Infinex public sale?this page
- Over $100M committed to the Infinex public sale?No won
- Over $10M committed to the Infinex public sale?No won
- Over $20M committed to the Infinex public sale?No won
- Over $2M committed to the Infinex public sale?Yes won
- Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale?Yes won
- Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale?Yes won
- Over $60M committed to the Infinex public sale?No won
- Over $7M committed to the Infinex public sale?Yes won
- Over $80M committed to the Infinex public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.