Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump declare war on Iran by February 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63da0fb91e8d6e54170067cd5052d65157661c351fcc25e4d620db9986fa57cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $327,021
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $233,477
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $327,021 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x97c9…e71cbacked Yes | 10c | 24,887$2,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,533 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 3cpaid | +305.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8556…fad9backed Yes | 28c | 20,697$5,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,822.32 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2c…a07dbacked Yes | 3c | 17,235$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 10c | 11,484$1,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,103.01 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 7,582$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.63 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1847…6a63backed Yes | 6c | 7,139$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.27 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab1c…35a7backed Yes | 7c | 6,774$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.69 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce89…6ea5backed Yes | 26c | 6,190$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -57%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 5,174$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.55 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a0…c047backed Yes | 5c | 4,951$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.9 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4863…0547backed Yes | 1c | 4,945$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…3690backed Yes | 13c | 4,583$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…f3bbbacked Yes | 16c | 3,954$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.05 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dd…c866backed Yes | 3c | 3,556$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 3,426$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.04 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e83…6ab2backed Yes | 10c | 3,354$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ec…143cbacked Yes | 9c | 3,352$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.97 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e5…f6fcbacked Yes | 3c | 3,147$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.27 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd634…ea6cbacked Yes | 2c | 3,116$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1f…c113backed Yes | 7c | 3,116$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.36 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6962…745ebacked Yes | 3c | 3,021$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 8c | 2,950$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.15 | 218 | 31.2%68 W · 150 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 2c | 2,935$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.07 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa092…0bf2backed Yes | 10c | 2,921$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…4479backed Yes | 6c | 2,890$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.09 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d8…8518backed Yes | 2c | 2,825$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…5481backed Yes | 11c | 2,666$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.26 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 3c | 2,655$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.24 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe54a…9398backed Yes | 2c | 2,654$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…a37cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,530$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 6c | 2,500$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.1 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,296$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.19 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7771…1407backed Yes | 13c | 2,281$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.3 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b6…7199backed Yes | 4c | 2,213$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…4570backed Yes | 13c | 2,193$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.24 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +8.3wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd1…cfb4backed Yes | 3c | 2,139$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 2,112$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b2…5c42backed Yes | 2c | 2,080$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 4cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6200…6b79backed Yes | 2c | 2,061$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 4c | 2,023$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.39 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf297…011fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,002$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8682…aa06backed Yes | 1c | 1,990$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 7c | 1,897$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.32 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 1,804$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.61 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 1,793$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…0c0fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,763$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dce…c8c5backed Yes | 7c | 1,712$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d6…7733backed Yes | 23c | 1,531$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +111.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,513$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce6…311ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,499$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.43 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 2c | 1,394$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0688…5f56backed Yes | 3c | 1,344$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 30c | 1,337$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.27 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x23fa…439bbacked Yes | 25c | 1,200$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16a8…7d0cbacked Yes | 18c | 1,195$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882f…819cbacked Yes | 14c | 1,137$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2c…a1cebacked Yes | 4c | 1,131$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2744…7da5backed Yes | 2c | 1,100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1197…9829backed Yes | 9c | 1,078$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.29 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe777…9f29backed Yes | 9c | 1,033$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 30cpaid | +321.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x525c…a3adbacked Yes | 20c | 995.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb3…9e16backed Yes | 2c | 968.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b2…be4fbacked Yes | 2c | 850$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 10c | 835.86$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.43 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…646cbacked Yes | 12c | 814.91$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.66 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86cf…592dbacked Yes | 6c | 801.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b15…e717backed Yes | 1c | 776.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b4…85b5backed Yes | 13c | 771.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1007…da6cbacked Yes | 14c | 744.91$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe841…26dabacked Yes | 3c | 714.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd8…4d2cbacked Yes | 14c | 710.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +441.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…74d4backed Yes | 12c | 677.01$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa27b…5d5cbacked Yes | 11c | 672.38$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e05…fbe5backed Yes | 8c | 635.13$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 9c | 629.62$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.53 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 8c | 619.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 136 | 45.6%62 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad60…0852backed Yes | 4c | 616.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 13cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked No | 30c | 600$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +24.9wins | +0.25per pick | 30cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked Yes | 10c | 593.64$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.77 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5e…da72backed Yes | 14c | 587.91$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca7…8195backed Yes | 10c | 572.46$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.18 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a66…a177backed Yes | 2c | 567.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 1cpaid | +921.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab06…689bbacked Yes | 51c | 559.39$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.31 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 4c | 538.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ff…db10backed Yes | 5c | 515.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b90…5893backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x024d…6b2bbacked Yes | 3c | 494.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa11…701cbacked Yes | 8c | 464.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd616…94e9backed Yes | 8c | 462.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e7…97a8backed Yes | 6c | 455.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 7c | 454.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…194ebacked Yes | 3c | 452.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 80c | 436.14$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.88 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee95…0625backed Yes | 12c | 425.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaa…43eabacked Yes | 12c | 419.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…3272backed Yes | 7c | 418.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db5…37eabacked Yes | 4c | 408.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…cca3backed No | 26c | 400$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +12.5wins | +0.21per pick | 21cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcda6…3f07backed Yes | 7c | 380$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c44…c7bfbacked Yes | 6c | 343.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +453.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump declare war on Iran by February 28, 2026?this page
- Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Trump declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.