Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd65eb29fb2788d836d05125f78f525bd16c875042d6a5f5daebd63fdf0c66a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $225,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $178,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $225,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 248 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 30c | 16,625$5,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,059.98 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked No | 69c | 10,400$7,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,270.14 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 18c | 9,110$1,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,603.57 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 13c | 3,752$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.2 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 6c | 3,508$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.96 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…06acbacked No | 78c | 3,496$2,738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.37 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…8da6backed Yes | 18c | 3,424$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.55 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe30e…eadabacked Yes | 12c | 3,141$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 8c | 3,098$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.7 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1847…6a63backed Yes | 14c | 2,427$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.6 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc0…eac0backed Yes | 11c | 2,340$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.07 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +60%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 3c | 2,314$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.09 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -81%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45df…5b27backed Yes | 2c | 2,237$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 15cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcd…bb7ebacked Yes | 35c | 2,212$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 2,143$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.66 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e40…f622backed Yes | 15c | 2,124$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a0…c047backed Yes | 36c | 2,063$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.29 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbed…804ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,002$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.17 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 1,953$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.08 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x744d…39b2backed Yes | 16c | 1,931$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6561…c074backed No | 65c | 1,872$1,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.27 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a60…b0b3backed Yes | 2c | 1,867$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x464b…67b4backed Yes | 4c | 1,808$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe98c…3585backed Yes | 24c | 1,713$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.44 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 5c | 1,683$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.28 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdab…137ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,659$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 69c | 1,653$1,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.43 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 1,647$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.38 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed Yes | 16c | 1,590$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.88 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd662…48fcbacked Yes | 3c | 1,526$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd505…2774backed Yes | 7c | 1,385$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.36 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 10c | 1,384$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.46 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a71…96febacked Yes | 2c | 1,332$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8190…b247backed No | 62c | 1,318$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.71 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…4570backed Yes | 15c | 1,300$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.53 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +8.3wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 11c | 1,259$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.56 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15cd…f483backed Yes | 15c | 1,259$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.61 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,156$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd20f…abc1backed Yes | 7c | 1,153$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x851a…6b12backed Yes | 9c | 1,139$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,107$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…46c3backed Yes | 9c | 1,087$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x338c…aa9bbacked Yes | 37c | 1,076$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 73c | 1,070$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.25 | 185 | 31.9%59 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cce…8c59backed Yes | 6c | 1,010$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…0760backed No | 77c | 999.98$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -8.7wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 80c | 999.98$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.8 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 6c | 940.6$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.97 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadff…9c81backed Yes | 20c | 939.38$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcda6…3f07backed No | 78c | 894.14$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.76 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf49d…3c3bbacked Yes | 7c | 875.2$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4135…e462backed Yes | 14c | 842.86$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x784d…caf4backed Yes | 24c | 824.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 11c | 818.07$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.33 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x284e…674ebacked Yes | 12c | 803.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9746…474bbacked Yes | 11c | 784.79$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff2…7f9dbacked Yes | 13c | 774.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b84…bae0backed Yes | 13c | 768.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 77c | 751.08$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.06 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e5…f6fcbacked Yes | 23c | 749.39$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.08 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a84…bb2ebacked Yes | 9c | 744.03$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a6…22b2backed Yes | 14c | 700$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.3 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84e5…13fcbacked Yes | 17c | 670.17$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a1…55a0backed Yes | 9c | 666.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x519b…55e4backed Yes | 15c | 644.96$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 11c | 628.16$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.95 | 118 | 18.6%22 W · 96 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed No | 72c | 611.5$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.02 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e80…9eadbacked Yes | 8c | 606.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6c…3da1backed Yes | 10c | 573.64$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.36 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 80c | 563.82$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.76 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 22c | 558.54$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.21 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x967b…cc39backed Yes | 20c | 551.51$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…44a2backed No | 76c | 524.28$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.28 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd1…cfb4backed Yes | 33c | 515$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…1670backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa44…7422backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 3c | 488.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 170 | 3.5%6 W · 164 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc720…799fbacked Yes | 33c | 476$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa9…ba6fbacked Yes | 4c | 464.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c0…a68dbacked Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x089a…8486backed Yes | 3c | 433.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbab5…15c5backed Yes | 24c | 420.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed No | 66c | 405.25$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.96 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3908…7a20backed Yes | 8c | 390.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x179d…e18bbacked Yes | 16c | 368.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd449…3f83backed Yes | 3c | 352$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0c…ab11backed Yes | 29c | 344.59$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0e…7ab5backed Yes | 10c | 338.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +314.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa09f…a5adbacked Yes | 20c | 334.24$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.07 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…a441backed Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 5c | 316.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a26…033fbacked Yes | 26c | 312.17$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a9…79a1backed Yes | 14c | 311.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x836d…d1a1backed No | 71c | 308.58$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.87 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked No | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c0…eb18backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…f6ffbacked Yes | 7c | 288.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae6…dd45backed No | 69c | 287.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.98 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…08a4backed Yes | 38c | 276.72$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?this page
- Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Trump declare war on Iran by February 28, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.