Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ed9ef25fbd07f6447cf8677b825b333df5daf684c95cbea6570e079b952b642
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $614,036
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $540,241
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $614,036 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 204 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b16…9aabbacked Yes | 7c | 59,568$4,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,081.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c8…052cbacked Yes | 22c | 45,072$10,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,088.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44cf…2211backed Yes | 6c | 19,807$1,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,146.02 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb61…6032backed Yes | 1c | 15,796$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 6cpaid | +555.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf87…482fbacked Yes | 3c | 15,582$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 72c | 10,550$7,559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,990.55 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc39…8ad8backed Yes | 7c | 9,753$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.96 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 3c | 8,844$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.18 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 3c | 7,414$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.12 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1081…c76bbacked Yes | 5c | 7,053$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.93 | 52 | 17.3%9 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92e2…1a7cbacked Yes | 6c | 7,000$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 21cpaid | +268%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa757…f01fbacked Yes | 3c | 6,252$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…3600backed Yes | 1c | 6,134$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.34 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf16a…b564backed Yes | 10c | 5,268$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.57 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfec3…c3a0backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 4,669$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.13 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb78e…30e3backed Yes | 6c | 4,604$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.24 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +106%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6732…d7f0backed Yes | 16c | 4,583$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.17 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +447.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6800…840abacked Yes | 4c | 4,509$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.13 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca6d…08c4backed Yes | 6c | 4,426$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…2d7dbacked Yes | 5c | 4,335$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.7 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed No | 79c | 4,061$3,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.45 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee4…c5babacked Yes | 4c | 4,050$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed Yes | 3c | 4,000$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 6c | 3,817$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.95 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75c0…dfd2backed Yes | 4c | 3,688$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.15 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 3,681$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.69 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…d030backed Yes | 14c | 3,655$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 6c | 3,458$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.69 | 109 | 13.8%15 W · 94 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424a…04cebacked Yes | 16c | 3,435$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.21 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ef…f569backed Yes | 5c | 3,157$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +95.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed Yes | 4c | 3,028$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.48 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -6.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4422…5362backed Yes | 7c | 3,016$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.75 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb698…976abacked Yes | 4c | 2,699$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.62 | 57 | 12.3%7 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94a0…76abbacked Yes | 4c | 2,514$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2d…e59ebacked Yes | 9c | 2,386$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27e0…b09bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,258$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.99 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,223$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.79 | 119 | 9.2%11 W · 108 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 2,180$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.4 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,123$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…7f37backed Yes | 5c | 2,118$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeedb…59e5backed Yes | 14c | 2,110$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.63 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b7…8bbcbacked Yes | 5c | 2,061$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1151…c9abbacked Yes | 5c | 2,052$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0791…d81fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,041$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.27 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf426…9e0fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,849$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddac…c144backed Yes | 5c | 1,829$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -78%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8feb…1271backed Yes | 8c | 1,825$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5db…a131backed Yes | 11c | 1,800$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde77…004abacked Yes | 3c | 1,800$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc5…b493backed Yes | 5c | 1,725$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.55 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacf5…16f8backed Yes | 7c | 1,636$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d4…7a70backed Yes | 9c | 1,467$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.6 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 7c | 1,444$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.3 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 2c | 1,277$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 130 | 33.1%43 W · 87 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed2…6008backed Yes | 2c | 1,274$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3c…70cabacked Yes | 14c | 1,273$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 4c | 1,215$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 1c | 1,214$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 2c | 1,071$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | +132.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb15a…fb9ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,050$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 1c | 1,041$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +9.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a8…5c27backed Yes | 10c | 1,002$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 103 | 33%34 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75fe…da36backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 79c | 985.2$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.98 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed Yes | 2c | 947.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…33bcbacked Yes | 4c | 946.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ae…5b63backed Yes | 5c | 940.43$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.83 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +7.0wins | +0.25per pick | 14cpaid | +163.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x248a…4b4abacked No | 70c | 935.71$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.71 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Yes | 4c | 903.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb90…c9a0backed Yes | 7c | 879.22$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.23 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d7c…d3bdbacked Yes | 5c | 867.55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +151.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb5…75babacked Yes | 4c | 857.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 6c | 821.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc144…fbc2backed Yes | 4c | 820.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc91d…85febacked Yes | 2c | 819.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb30…5011backed Yes | 6c | 805.64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 72c | 799.99$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.7 | 185 | 31.9%59 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x634f…5186backed Yes | 3c | 781.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fca…30c7backed Yes | 9c | 778.64$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97a…7bdebacked Yes | 8c | 760.18$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a66…a177backed Yes | 2c | 736.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 1cpaid | +921.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d35…5768backed Yes | 5c | 720.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…34bebacked Yes | 15c | 688.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5d…1532backed Yes | 5c | 666.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68d0…f5cdbacked Yes | 5c | 660.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73f4…a1cfbacked Yes | 8c | 635.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +127.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 15c | 631.78$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.93 | 218 | 31.2%68 W · 150 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc41a…d7d5backed Yes | 5c | 628.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 4cpaid | +216.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…bf12backed Yes | 9c | 625.02$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x998e…3e15backed Yes | 9c | 574.23$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +58%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81cf…091ebacked Yes | 5c | 569.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4004…c5debacked Yes | 5c | 548.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +353%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe85c…ed6bbacked Yes | 3c | 528.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa20a…d92dbacked Yes | 4c | 517.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d3…ed81backed Yes | 11c | 512.97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?this page
- Will Trump declare war on Iran by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Trump declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.