Ukraine · resolved market
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5922b452220eccc497a9cf1e7778b19b8b89a0aa694302beee2c85acf366fbc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $389,203
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $369,912
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $389,203 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 334 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 20c | 25,844$5,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,072.53 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 9c | 13,260$1,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,138.39 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ef…e25dbacked Yes | 22c | 13,097$2,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,895 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 80c | 11,757$9,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,398.14 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x40b3…a75cbacked Yes | 23c | 9,800$2,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,254 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe145…519abacked No | 68c | 8,690$5,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,738.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 1c | 8,104$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 26c | 7,489$1,969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,968.67 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 2c | 6,569$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.17 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 58c | 5,929$3,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,485.37 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 76c | 5,360$4,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,312.01 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb307…be4abacked No | 67c | 4,798$3,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,598.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 10c | 4,614$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.47 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x464e…1a67backed No | 80c | 3,983$3,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.51 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x91e8…f1abbacked No | 74c | 3,954$2,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,041.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,701$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.39 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…6d3cbacked No | 77c | 3,600$2,772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa461…182dbacked No | 77c | 3,150$2,426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0324…ac85backed No | 77c | 3,050$2,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb066…f30bbacked No | 62c | 3,048$1,885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,162.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 33c | 2,739$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.47 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 23c | 2,729$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.78 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda68…7ee2backed Yes | 21c | 2,460$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 74c | 2,427$1,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.66 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 16c | 2,362$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.13 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc005…75f3backed Yes | 29c | 2,343$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 2,233$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.11 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 16c | 2,165$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.14 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 10c | 2,000$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.52 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74bf…2a6ebacked No | 79c | 2,000$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +29%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 17c | 1,835$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.35 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…bbe4backed No | 74c | 1,710$1,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.98 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 1c | 1,670$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf665…d8b4backed No | 76c | 1,585$1,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9486…eecdbacked Yes | 10c | 1,530$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +132.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…60f2backed Yes | 4c | 1,419$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,400$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2666…5ef1backed Yes | 3c | 1,399$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 20c | 1,363$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.97 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 51c | 1,361$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.41 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb89…a2e8backed No | 75c | 1,272$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7845…417bbacked Yes | 21c | 1,242$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe777…9f29backed Yes | 13c | 1,200$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 62c | 1,200$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.06 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1410…a67dbacked No | 53c | 1,189$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.78 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x768b…de48backed No | 79c | 1,181$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.41 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…57e9backed No | 69c | 1,082$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.31 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,070$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…324ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,022$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8214…ef72backed Yes | 4c | 999.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 41c | 999.98$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.99 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf70b…46afbacked No | 60c | 997.91$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd8…5972backed Yes | 6c | 988.39$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed Yes | 41c | 943.9$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6759…1261backed No | 65c | 916.67$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5df…49cbbacked Yes | 22c | 908.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 70c | 900$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 33c | 884.08$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.02 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked No | 56c | 857.27$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.21 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 7c | 846.88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.68 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92d…e158backed Yes | 24c | 837.59$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe473…0dafbacked No | 77c | 828.45$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.68 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 66cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd416…d9e2backed Yes | 29c | 806.51$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.84 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dff…1f35backed Yes | 31c | 799.98$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf492…3061backed Yes | 26c | 781.48$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf399…7005backed No | 59c | 763$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.83 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +181%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 14c | 746.42$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.5 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56da…fca2backed Yes | 47c | 717.45$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.53 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -35%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 43c | 716.15$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.37 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0404…8353backed No | 50c | 708.52$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcf…20aebacked Yes | 12c | 700$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1635…26bfbacked No | 73c | 684.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…23f2backed Yes | 9c | 648.27$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c7…3724backed No | 80c | 644.54$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 79c | 641.3$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.67 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17e6…6fcbbacked No | 53c | 634.64$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa04a…6bf2backed Yes | 18c | 622.79$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20c3…cd2bbacked Yes | 3c | 616.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked Yes | 27c | 600.42$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.21 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 77c | 600$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked Yes | 4c | 600$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe443…c065backed No | 75c | 600$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b6…14f4backed No | 80c | 600$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa574…efe0backed No | 77c | 586.95$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5e…1773backed No | 68c | 575$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4211…8a79backed No | 57c | 548$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.64 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 546.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f0…ae31backed Yes | 28c | 546.17$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.28 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c69…1019backed No | 75c | 542.96$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.26 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7171…7af9backed Yes | 4c | 532$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 523.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dba…2ac5backed Yes | 22c | 506.74$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.4 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 4c | 499.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked No | 47c | 498.05$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.41 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +3.3wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +144.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 8c | 497.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 56c | 486.41$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.39 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes | 38c | 483.98$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.81 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x881b…034cbacked Yes | 22c | 463.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf072…cee7backed Yes | 18c | 461.11$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked Yes | 10c | 455.56$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.