TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,715,854
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,647,361

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,715,854 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,637 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6d77…b72cbacked Yes9c155,550$13,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,253.9250%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes4c102,990$4,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,009.452615.4%4 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-70.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3143…81b1backed Yes11c93,795$10,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,262.663221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4181…de86backed Yes9c66,498$6,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,078.258815.9%14 W · 74 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked Yes18c63,976$11,438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,437.851735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-40.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes3c56,429$1,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,593.63474.3%2 W · 45 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-93.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked Yes1c53,250$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.251926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick20cpaid-44.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6910…1779backed Yes6c51,444$3,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,203.711216.7%2 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-60.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed50…73cfbacked Yes5c46,754$2,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,336.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes12c43,361$5,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,074.162560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3974…18a3backed Yes7c40,710$2,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,715.5180%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6ee…697bbacked Yes19c37,333$7,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,277.03250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd17d…d0eebacked Yes9c35,361$3,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,066.911741.2%7 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick27cpaid-9.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes7c34,720$2,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,281.7919011.6%22 W · 168 L-0.4wins0.00per pick12cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cd0…6259backed Yes7c30,734$2,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,087.9430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa445…0286backed Yes1c30,525$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.332920.3%1 W · 291 L+0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaca…460abacked Yes19c29,922$5,808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,807.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80cc…b5a4backed Yes5c25,598$1,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,321.6283.6%1 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-60.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33c2…9818backed Yes18c23,595$4,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,207.09119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.18per pick27cpaid-88%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb525…fe8cbacked Yes18c21,650$3,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,832.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf243…5fb4backed Yes21c21,643$4,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,529.89966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd06b…4faebacked Yes9c21,255$1,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,994.313823.7%9 W · 29 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c96…5da9backed Yes11c19,571$2,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,195.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8c5…4109backed Yes14c18,775$2,593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,593.16190%0 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d36…10d5backed No80c18,115$14,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,6231100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2efd…be4cbacked Yes20c18,115$3,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,62310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7988…560dbacked Yes28c17,400$4,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,95920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes10c17,314$1,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,770.07634.8%3 W · 60 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-90.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes10c16,392$1,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,624.511931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes15c16,186$2,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,399.488864.8%57 W · 31 L+8.4wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+14.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x971d…146ebacked Yes28c16,055$4,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,558.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce29…b71bbacked Yes19c14,120$2,634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,634333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-58.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes12c13,653$1,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,595.25735.1%20 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4a2…36f2backed Yes29c12,650$3,669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,668.56728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-48.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd552…5ebebacked Yes13c12,477$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,649.750%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c12,300$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1580%0 W · 58 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa20…9262backed Yes5c12,208$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.572828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes16c11,064$1,732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,732.23456.7%3 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick13cpaid-68.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed Yes9c10,978$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.9333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes9c10,966$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,023.412110.9%2 W · 209 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes7c10,949$762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762.438220.7%17 W · 65 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb177…ac08backed Yes11c10,781$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,180.49944.4%4 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.29per pick16cpaid+248.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x458e…51b4backed Yes20c10,365$2,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,055.931118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-41.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60fd…1d52backed Yes42c10,357$4,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,332.061833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+93.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3e6…fd30backed Yes9c10,106$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b8f…6a4fbacked Yes2c10,009$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c1…b8fabacked Yes11c9,959$1,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,056.5230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x578d…fbb3backed Yes39c9,935$3,924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,924.01850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-24.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c9,787$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.786291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes11c9,563$1,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,042.9257426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes13c9,017$1,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,185.29205%1 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick14cpaid-84.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f23…b36ebacked Yes6c8,970$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.5180%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No61c8,365$5,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,262.482147.6%10 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick63cpaid-30.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed Yes37c8,080$2,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,955.97955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.21per pick35cpaid+77%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfec9…4325backed Yes14c7,450$1,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,022.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3887…8906backed Yes27c7,387$1,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,998.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6cb…bbf0backed Yes18c7,338$1,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,304.08650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes10c7,320$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.721,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes14c7,165$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$975.218323%42 W · 141 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcff8…737bbacked Yes1c7,000$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe777…9f29backed Yes6c7,000$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-59.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x013d…3e88backed Yes26c6,780$1,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,739.573426.5%9 W · 25 L+4.1wins+0.12per pick14cpaid+72.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x30d9…767dbacked No72c6,700$4,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,909.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf53d…72a9backed Yes2c6,621$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf3ab…0239backed Yes17c6,561$1,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,098.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x402e…5d12backed Yes2c6,547$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.78714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c6,450$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.72003.5%7 W · 193 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+42.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x47fc…8d6bbacked Yes9c6,376$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.31070%7 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1186…8e60backed Yes8c6,121$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.4650%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes8c6,108$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.117219.4%14 W · 58 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x399a…c49cbacked No72c6,050$4,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,724.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick72cpaid+39.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccff…e845backed Yes42c5,806$2,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,460.332142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-28.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes1c5,800$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33348.8%3 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-88.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a10…8b30backed Yes40c5,764$2,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,328.22837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-45.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5584…6e2abacked Yes4c5,741$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.842010%2 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick5cpaid-59.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes6c5,309$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.91526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick19cpaid-55.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53cb…fc91backed Yes7c5,166$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.6616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-75.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaecb…44bdbacked Yes11c5,164$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes5c5,140$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.171491.3%2 W · 147 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-83.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9c8…c658backed Yes2c5,023$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.76010%6 W · 54 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-48.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0aae…251cbacked Yes8c5,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4101330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+181.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa358…a91fbacked No80c5,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick76cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3767…950cbacked Yes11c5,000$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Yes6c5,000$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-72.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde0c…a715backed Yes19c5,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.991030%3 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+47.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00b5…b3cabacked Yes24c5,000$1,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,184.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x939b…9cd7backed Yes12c4,658$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.691618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-70.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed9d…7b7cbacked No72c4,650$3,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,325.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick72cpaid+39.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes14c4,621$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.9940712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc191…a9e8backed Yes22c4,601$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa84d…5d71backed Yes16c4,588$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$746.7825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-56.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9dc…4d2fbacked Yes5c4,520$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.32922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-41.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes13c4,465$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.272416.7%4 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-70%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xecf3…7b7abacked Yes7c4,458$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.9740%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x623a…5e86backed Yes2c4,206$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.13250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-35%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d44…966fbacked Yes14c4,203$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.6750%0 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed No73c4,116$2,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,121.29450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-27.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…2202backed Yes12c4,070$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.391030%3 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-47.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes5c4,039$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.522792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x575b…14f0backed Yes24c4,000$964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-43.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.