AI · resolved market
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bcafeaa34b577a82baf2137057b3f9f02f4d50ee3bc6908c0a5899a3260e50a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,715,854
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,647,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,715,854 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,637 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d77…b72cbacked Yes | 9c | 155,550$13,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,253.92 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes | 4c | 102,990$4,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,009.45 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…81b1backed Yes | 11c | 93,795$10,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,262.66 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed Yes | 9c | 66,498$6,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,078.25 | 88 | 15.9%14 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…292abacked Yes | 18c | 63,976$11,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,437.85 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 3c | 56,429$1,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,593.63 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -93.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked Yes | 1c | 53,250$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.25 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6910…1779backed Yes | 6c | 51,444$3,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,203.71 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed50…73cfbacked Yes | 5c | 46,754$2,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,336.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 12c | 43,361$5,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,074.16 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3974…18a3backed Yes | 7c | 40,710$2,716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,715.51 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Yes | 19c | 37,333$7,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,277.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Yes | 9c | 35,361$3,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,066.91 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 7c | 34,720$2,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,281.79 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd0…6259backed Yes | 7c | 30,734$2,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,087.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 1c | 30,525$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.33 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaca…460abacked Yes | 19c | 29,922$5,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,807.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80cc…b5a4backed Yes | 5c | 25,598$1,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,321.6 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c2…9818backed Yes | 18c | 23,595$4,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,207.09 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -88%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb525…fe8cbacked Yes | 18c | 21,650$3,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,832.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf243…5fb4backed Yes | 21c | 21,643$4,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,529.89 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…4faebacked Yes | 9c | 21,255$1,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,994.31 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c96…5da9backed Yes | 11c | 19,571$2,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,195.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c5…4109backed Yes | 14c | 18,775$2,593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,593.16 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d36…10d5backed No | 80c | 18,115$14,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,623 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2efd…be4cbacked Yes | 20c | 18,115$3,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,623 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7988…560dbacked Yes | 28c | 17,400$4,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,959 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 10c | 17,314$1,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,770.07 | 63 | 4.8%3 W · 60 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -90.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 10c | 16,392$1,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,624.51 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 15c | 16,186$2,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,399.48 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x971d…146ebacked Yes | 28c | 16,055$4,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,558.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce29…b71bbacked Yes | 19c | 14,120$2,634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,634 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 12c | 13,653$1,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,595.2 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a2…36f2backed Yes | 29c | 12,650$3,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,668.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd552…5ebebacked Yes | 13c | 12,477$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,649.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 12,300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…9262backed Yes | 5c | 12,208$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.57 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 16c | 11,064$1,732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,732.23 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed Yes | 9c | 10,978$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 9c | 10,966$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.41 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 7c | 10,949$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.43 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…ac08backed Yes | 11c | 10,781$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180.49 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 16cpaid | +248.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x458e…51b4backed Yes | 20c | 10,365$2,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,055.93 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…1d52backed Yes | 42c | 10,357$4,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,332.06 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e6…fd30backed Yes | 9c | 10,106$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…6a4fbacked Yes | 2c | 10,009$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c1…b8fabacked Yes | 11c | 9,959$1,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,056.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…fbb3backed Yes | 39c | 9,935$3,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,924.01 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 9,787$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.78 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 9,563$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,042.92 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes | 13c | 9,017$1,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,185.29 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f23…b36ebacked Yes | 6c | 8,970$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.51 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 61c | 8,365$5,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,262.48 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Yes | 37c | 8,080$2,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,955.97 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.21per pick | 35cpaid | +77%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfec9…4325backed Yes | 14c | 7,450$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…8906backed Yes | 27c | 7,387$1,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,998.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6cb…bbf0backed Yes | 18c | 7,338$1,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,304.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 7,320$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.72 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 14c | 7,165$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.2 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcff8…737bbacked Yes | 1c | 7,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe777…9f29backed Yes | 6c | 7,000$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed Yes | 26c | 6,780$1,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,739.57 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30d9…767dbacked No | 72c | 6,700$4,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,909.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf53d…72a9backed Yes | 2c | 6,621$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ab…0239backed Yes | 17c | 6,561$1,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,098.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402e…5d12backed Yes | 2c | 6,547$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.78 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 6,450$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…8d6bbacked Yes | 9c | 6,376$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.3 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…8e60backed Yes | 8c | 6,121$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.46 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 8c | 6,108$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.11 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x399a…c49cbacked No | 72c | 6,050$4,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,724.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccff…e845backed Yes | 42c | 5,806$2,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,460.33 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,800$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a10…8b30backed Yes | 40c | 5,764$2,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,328.22 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5584…6e2abacked Yes | 4c | 5,741$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.84 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 6c | 5,309$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.9 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53cb…fc91backed Yes | 7c | 5,166$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaecb…44bdbacked Yes | 11c | 5,164$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 5c | 5,140$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.17 | 149 | 1.3%2 W · 147 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c8…c658backed Yes | 2c | 5,023$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.7 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…251cbacked Yes | 8c | 5,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +181.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa358…a91fbacked No | 80c | 5,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3767…950cbacked Yes | 11c | 5,000$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Yes | 6c | 5,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde0c…a715backed Yes | 19c | 5,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00b5…b3cabacked Yes | 24c | 5,000$1,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,184.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939b…9cd7backed Yes | 12c | 4,658$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.69 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed9d…7b7cbacked No | 72c | 4,650$3,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,325.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 4,621$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.99 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc191…a9e8backed Yes | 22c | 4,601$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 16c | 4,588$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.7 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9dc…4d2fbacked Yes | 5c | 4,520$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.32 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 13c | 4,465$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.27 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -70%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecf3…7b7abacked Yes | 7c | 4,458$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x623a…5e86backed Yes | 2c | 4,206$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d44…966fbacked Yes | 14c | 4,203$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.67 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed No | 73c | 4,116$2,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,121.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2202backed Yes | 12c | 4,070$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.39 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 4,039$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.52 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x575b…14f0backed Yes | 24c | 4,000$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?this page
- Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.