AI · resolved market
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6531afe133dd1087f336e160eebee4af020e2107bd279b40d5039d1d033007fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,104,724
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,468,446
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,104,724 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe959…7c7abacked Yes | 0c | 468,929$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.93 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…7074backed Yes | 0c | 424,757$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.76 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 5cpaid | +384.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f2…39f2backed Yes | 0c | 409,997$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 336,940$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.94 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x095c…de88backed Yes | 0c | 240,412$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.83 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 238,786$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.79 | 149 | 1.3%2 W · 147 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 222,498$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff47…d81fbacked Yes | 0c | 111,313$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.63 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 78,848$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.69 | 75 | 10.7%8 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a43…b7bdbacked Yes | 0c | 72,637$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.27 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…d40dbacked Yes | 0c | 69,999$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ed…f76fbacked Yes | 0c | 63,863$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.73 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49a8…7153backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05da…ae41backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd497…cf2dbacked Yes | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 35,999$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 101 | 0%0 W · 101 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd469…db7cbacked Yes | 0c | 35,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7043…1425backed Yes | 0c | 34,391$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.78 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8648…2241backed Yes | 0c | 31,354$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes | 0c | 29,133$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6e…3eb4backed Yes | 0c | 27,560$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02da…a679backed Yes | 0c | 26,994$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58fd…43a6backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 64 | 0%0 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a0…582fbacked Yes | 0c | 23,228$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…1d0abacked Yes | 0c | 23,182$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9300…d5d0backed Yes | 0c | 22,275$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 22,000$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 105 | 1.9%2 W · 103 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 21,469$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.44 | 82 | 1.2%1 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5170…f16cbacked Yes | 0c | 21,100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…9262backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…0cc1backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…8dfebacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf67c…8b0dbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c00…cddfbacked Yes | 0c | 18,185$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9bf…7424backed Yes | 3c | 17,318$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.87 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1df…7f0abacked Yes | 0c | 16,495$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea1…17c1backed Yes | 1c | 16,000$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7152…faacbacked Yes | 0c | 14,888$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…c8b1backed Yes | 0c | 14,091$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.74 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 14,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f6…58d6backed Yes | 1c | 10,635$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,499$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf19…e4e8backed Yes | 0c | 10,100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…9563backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee29…d1f4backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed Yes | 3c | 9,735$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.86 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc125…d084backed Yes | 1c | 7,982$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0e…fccdbacked Yes | 0c | 6,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddcd…6191backed Yes | 0c | 6,250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…6fadbacked Yes | 1c | 5,827$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.83 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 5,413$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 3cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 5,279$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 46 | 0%0 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b7…9cc5backed Yes | 0c | 5,231$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…80bcbacked Yes | 0c | 5,168$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 150 | 2.7%4 W · 146 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaff…6078backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa626…fd97backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd276…ca73backed Yes | 1c | 4,367$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2015…3fbfbacked Yes | 1c | 3,927$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 3,684$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.83 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff16…7511backed Yes | 2c | 3,500$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…0772backed Yes | 0c | 3,300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed Yes | 4c | 3,195$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.58 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -42%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3418…a3f2backed Yes | 3c | 3,129$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.56 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…6856backed Yes | 2c | 2,521$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb583…e223backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed Yes | 1c | 2,486$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf99…4f47backed Yes | 1c | 2,100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 1c | 2,080$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…68d9backed Yes | 2c | 2,067$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbb…dc2bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,009$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb98e…db47backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 1,909$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 4c | 1,839$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.72 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…b722backed Yes | 1c | 1,533$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4522…20c5backed Yes | 1c | 1,533$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x060a…eaabbacked Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…e4bdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,186$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d52…c840backed Yes | 2c | 1,143$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c75…6f6fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,052$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x757a…0e81backed Yes | 4c | 999.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…0acbbacked Yes | 1c | 999.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 2c | 999.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 1c | 999.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -49%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf628…56adbacked Yes | 1c | 991.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f1…b6a7backed Yes | 5c | 818.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 2c | 776.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 537.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108c…7d81backed Yes | 4c | 526.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 2c | 467.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 288.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 69 | 5.8%4 W · 65 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…74fdbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?this page
- Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.